Hi All,
A good week for all three of our selections in Italy, with all of them coming in the top 20, the best of which was a runners-up finish for NB Danny Willett at 20/1, missing out by just 1 single shot, very close to the win. So the place was enough to tide us over for this week’s event; article and selections below:
The Tour Championship, PGA Tour – 10 pts Outlay
At East Lake Golf Club, 7,385 yards, par 70 – Thursday September 22nd to Sunday September 25th
Best known as the course where Bobby Jones learned the game, the onetime home of the Atlanta Athletic Club dates back to 1908. Tom Bendelow did the original design, revamped in 1913 by Donald Ross. Jones was already showing glimpses of his talent by then, eventually going on to etch his name in history by completing the 1930 Grand Slam. East Lake hosted the 1950 U.S. Women’s Amateur and 1963 Ryder Cup before the surrounding neighbourhood began to decay. The AAC relocated to the northern suburbs in 1967, leaving East Lake in the hands of 25 members opposed to the move. The club’s second life began in 1993 when a partnership was formed to restore the club as a tribute to Jones. The TOUR Last Week’s Outlay 12 pts Last Week’s Return 12 pts (level) Year To Date + 378.05 2 Championship came to East Lake for the first time in 1998, becoming the annual host in 2004.
Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Adam Scott, Jason Day and Paul Casey have the inside track to the FedEx Cup by virtue of their positions in the top five, able to secure the points title simply by winning the finale. No.6 McIlroy and No.7 Spieth hold just slightly less control, needing to win while Johnson and perhaps Reed do not finish alone in second. Points have been reset after the BMW Championship, allowing everyone a mathematical chance of claiming the crown. For No.30 Charl Schwartzel to win, though, Johnson would have to finish in the bottom two at East Lake. Day’s status is in question after a sore back forced him to withdraw midway through the final round of the BMW Championship. The Aussie has pushed through back woes to win in other instances, including the WGC Dell Match Play in March.
NAP – JORDAN SPIETH 10/1 (BetFair) 5 pts WIN
Jordan’s playoff record so far this year reads 10th, 21st and 9th and I think he is brewing ready to win again. He won here last year by 4 shots, and was also tied 2nd in 2013 – so he clearly gets on well with the East Lake layout. The fact that despite an average season by his standards he is still ranked 2nd in strokes gained putting on tour will always see Jordan Spieth there or there abouts should he turn up with a half decent long game.
NB – BRANDT SNEDEKER 35/1 (SkyBet) 1.5 pts EW
Having won here by three shots as recently as 2012, Brandt is enjoying his best season since then, and sits in 11th place going into the FedEx Cup finale. Coupled with his win this year Brandt Snedeker has enjoyed seven top 10 finishes, with his recent form also looking strong, with eight cuts made in a row, including two top 5 finishes.
IWAC – J.B. HOLMES 40/1 (SkyBet) 1 pt EW
Confidence will be sky high in the J.B Holmes camp with his tied 4th place finish in the last playoff event only a fortnight ago seeing him secure one of Davis Love III’s Ryder Cup wildcards. He also showed that he has the game to get round this East Lake setup well, having shot three rounds in the 60s for his top 8 finish in last year’s playing.
Porsche European Open, European Tour – 10 pts Outlay
At Golf Resort Bad Griesbach, 7,188 yards, par 71 – Thursday September 22nd to Sunday September 25th
Golf Resort Bad Griesbach, which played host to a European Tour event for the first time in 2015, is Europe’s largest golf resort with six courses.
The European Challenge Tour had previously visited the resort from 2013-15, when the Aegean Airlines Challenge Tour by Hartl Resort was played there. The course being used for the Porsche European is the Beckenbauer Course. Named after Germany’s World Cup winning footballer, Franz, it measures 7,188 yards from the back tees.
Home hero Martin Kaymer will make his final appearance before departing for Hazeltine National, where he will represent Europe in The Ryder Cup for a fourth successive time. Ryder Cup debutant Thomas Pieters is another player who will hope to fine tune his game in Germany ahead of golf’s greatest team event.
The duo will be joined at Golf Resort Bad Griesbach by South African Ernie Els, who is making his first appearance in a regular European Tour event since the Omega Dubai Desert Classic in February. The former Open Champion’s last European Tour victory came on German soil, at the 2013 BMW International Open. Eight-time European Tour champion Thongchai Jaidee will aim to mount a successful defense of his title.
NAP – SCOTT HEND 28/1 (SkyBet & Bet365) 2.5 pts EW
Playing really well at the moment with two top 4 finishes to his name already this month, Scott Hend is an impressive 29 under par for his last 10 tournament rounds. He can continue that form this week in Germany, on a course that he finished in 4th place last year, shooting all four rounds in the 60s.
NB – RICHARD BLAND 33/1 (Coral & Ladbrokes) 1.5 pts EW
In a similar manor to Hend above, Richard is another player having a real purple patch; for his last four events Richard Bland is an impressive 40 under par, seeing him secure two top 5 finishes along the way. He also arrives here in Germany with positive memories from last year’s event, where an opening round of 65 helped him to finish inside the 10.
IWAC – RICKARD KARLBERG 40/1 (Ladbrokes) 1pt EW
A score of 12 under par on this course last year was good enough to see Rickard finishing in the top 5; this finish included three impressive scores of 66, 67 and a 68. There were signs last week that Rikard Karlberg may be playing himself back into that sort of form once again, where three rounds in the 60s saw him finish on a 14 under par today and inside the top 12.
NOTE: With only 30 players in the field on the PGA Tour, SkyBet is the place to be, still offering top 5 places at 1/4 odds. For the European Tour event, PaddyPower are offering top 7 places at 1/5 odds. All odds included in the above article are simply the highest odds available at the time of writing sourced via Odds Checker.
This Week’s Outlay – 20 pts
Hope you have a good week, and good luck to all those following,
Stu
@PriestleyStuart
sjpriestley_pga@btinternet.com
Hi All,
Any week we are able to get out in profit is always a classed as good one by me, and non more so than this week, where on form South Korean Si Woo Kim took the tournament by the scruff of the neck and wasn’t for letting anyone else get near, so from a long way out it looked like we’d have to settle for a 3rd place finish at 28/1 from Brandt Snedeker, and sure enough this was good enough to just about tip the scales in our favour.
Moving on to this week where the fun starts on the PGA Tour in the form of the FedEx cup playoff series, where week on week the field sizes are whittled down. With all the top players back out for the next month or so, and the odds on them now getting silly low with so many players at the top of the world rankings playing well and bookies running scared, I will be going down the value route for the next stretch of weeks in search of more profit. Hopefully a good run is ahead of us to finish off the regular season.
The Barclays, PGA Tour – 10 pts Outlay at Bethpage State Park (Black), 7,468 yards, par 71 – Thursday August 25th to Sunday August 28th
Built by A.W. Tillinghast, the Black opened in 1936 and was a treasured public gem for locals for decades until the 2002 U.S. Open thrust the course onto the world stage. A famous sign greets golfers near the first tee warning that only “highly skilled” golfers should play the Black, and its reputation for toughness attracted such pros as Sam Snead, Gene Sarazen and Byron Nelson early on to test its strength. Snead famously called it “an unfair test” after beating Nelson in a 1940 exhibition. Tiger Woods captured the 2002 Open at Bethpage, and the event returned just seven years later when Lucas Glover won a rain-soaked edition. The Black joined The Barclays rota in 2012, when Nick Watney prevailed.
FedEx Cup points leader Jason Day, also the reigning Barclays champion, and U.S. Open titleholder Dustin Johnson head a roster currently set for 122 at the opening playoff stop. Sergio Garcia sits out The Barclays for the second consecutive year, while Shane Lowry has opted to play the final European Tour stop before the automatic Ryder Cup berths are locked in. Masters champion Danny Willett is the third missing name. Emiliano Grillo and Smylie Kaufman, who won the season's first two events back in October, top a list of six rookies expected to crack the 2016 playoff lineup.
NAP – BRANDT SNEDEKER 40/1 (PaddyPower) 2.5 pts EW
Last week’s Wyndham Championship saw Brandt Snedeker notch up his seventh top 10 finish of the year; with a win and a further three times inside the top 3 to his name it really has been a great year for Brandt (currently sitting 6th in the FedEx Cup rankings). With the return of many of the games top names to the field, the value is there for all to see outside of the top 4 or 5 in the market. Having shot a round of at least 66 in each of this last three events, including two rounds of 65 in his 3rd place finish last week, there are few playing much better than Brandt Snedeker heading in to this week. What I also like, is that he has some good experience in the bank here at the tough Bethpage Black layout, having competed on this course in the 2009 US Open, and also securing runners up honours when The Barclays was last here in 2012, where he impressively shot all four rounds under par!
NB – JIM FURYK 45/1 (SkyBet) 1.5 pts EW
Whenever there is talk of golf about to be carried out on a tough US Open venue, my mind always turns to one man, Mr Reliable himself. Similar to the above, Jim Furyk arrives here this week in great form, with stand out rounds like the remarkable 58 just two weeks ago followed by a 64 last week helping Jim secure a 5th and 10th place finishes. Although his 94th place ranking in the FedEx Cup may seem modest to most, it is important to remember that Jim’s season got going very late due to a lengthy wrist injury, so in actual fact he has done very well to earn his spot in the top 125 for this event, having had almost half of the events as the majority. Having made the cut here in the aforementioned 2009 US Open, Jim Furyk also competed in the 2012 playing of The Barclays, both held around Bethpage, so he will also gain the benefit of having had tournament experience of this tough set up.
IWAC – SI WOO KIM 100/1 (StanJames) 1 pt EW
I have been following Si Woo Kim all year (currently 15th in the FedEx Cup rankings) since he graduated from the Web.com tour, feeling sure his textbook technique would see him break in to the winners circle sooner rather than later, he came close when losing in a playoff not long ago, but he put this behind him in great style only a few days ago to win the Wyndham Championship in tremendous style. Yes he may be the one that got away, but I don’t feel Si Woo Kim is a flash in the pan, and it has been said for a while it was only going to be a matter of time before an Asian competitor would mix it with the big boys at the top of the game, and at the spritely age of just 21 I feel confident that Si Woo will grow to be that man. The fact there is 100/1 available for the most recent winner on tour is simply too good to miss out on.
Made in Denmark, European Tour – 10 pts Outlay
At Himmerland Golf & Spa Resort, 7,033 yards, par 71 – Thursday August 25th to Sunday August 28th
The Backtee Course is one of three layouts at the Danish golfing haven of Himmerland and its most celebrated one, having officially re-opened in 2013 following one of the most extensive golf course renovations in Scandianian history. Designed by renowned course architect Philip Spogárd, who also designed Carya Golf Club, host venue for this season’s Turkish Airlines Open, it sits 20km away from the city of Alborg in the exposed landscape of northern Jutland. Although it’s not coastal; it is linksy and often windswept so the 7,033 yards can often feel longer, with the respective nine under and 13 under winnings scores in 2014 and 2015 proving it’s no walkover.
Although qualification for Europe’s Ryder Cup Team has already been finalised, this year’s Made in Denmark boasts its strongest field in the tournament’s history assembles at Himmerland Golf and Spa Resort this week. Three Major winners, Darren Clarke, Martin Kaymer and YE Yang, head the field with the 2011 Open Champion from Northern Ireland taking one final opportunity to run the rule over some of his potential wild-card selections for his European team at Hazeltine. Home favourite, Søren Kjeldsen who finished in a tie for second in the 2015 Made in Denmark, is among the players hoping make one final impression ahead of Clarke’s wild card picks next week, with former World Number One Kaymer and Ireland’s Shane Lowry targeting strong performances to catch the eye of the captain. Horsey returns to defend his crown while the inaugural champion Marc Warren from Scotland is also in the field.
NAP – SOREN KJELDSEN 18/1 (PaddyPower & Coral) 2.5 pts EW placed
Currently sitting in 17th position in the Race to Dubai, and having narrowly missed out on Ryder Cup qualification on both the European and World point’s lists, it has been another season where Soren Kjeldsen has been the model of consistency. With four top 8 finishes on the European Tour since February, Soren, in front of home crowds, will be looking to make plenty of noise this week to force himself in to captain Clarke’s thinking. Finally, and worthy of note is the strong course and event form shown by Soren Kjeldsen – in the first two playing’s of this Made in Denmark event Soren has finished inside the top 15 on both occasions, with the highlight being last years running, where he finished in 2nd spot after three rounds in the 60s.
NB – BRADLEY DREDGE 28/1 (SkyBet, PaddyPower, Coral & Bet365) 1.5 pts EW - 2nd
The 2016 season has seen Bradley Dredge continue to take steps to get back to where he once was as one of the more consistent and top golfers on the European circuit. Three times inside the top 7 places this year see Bradley riding high in 27th place on the Race to Dubai rankings, and having made the cut in each of his last three events on tour, I feel Bradley will be wanting a nice strong finish to the season. With that in mind, there will be no better place to start than here at this event, where he has a stand out record in the only two previous running’s of the event, with an outright 2nd in 2014 and a 6th place finish last year, Bradley Dredge has never found himself more than 3 shots behind the winner come close of play at this event on this golf course, and with 7 rounds under par from 8 attempts he looks destined to go close once more come Sunday afternoon.
IWAC – KRISTOFFER BROBERG 90/1 (Bet365 & StanJames) 1 pt EW
There is a little punt associated with my final selection here, but Kristoffer Broberg has form figures in this event that are too strong to ignore, with a 67 and a 69 to his name in the inaugural event in 2014; and an incredible final round of 62 seeing Kristoffer finish in runners up spot last year. With this form in the book, there must be something in the water around the Himmerland Resort that brings out the best in Kristoffer. This season hasn’t been the best, and this week will indeed have to spark an upturn in fortune for Kristoffer Broberg to get competitive here for the third year in a row, and with him sitting in the precarious position of 113th in the Race to Dubai, there are lots of incentives for Kristoffer to play well back in his native Scandinavia.
NOTE: As per usual, please do be careful and aware of who you are betting with for the golf, amazingly a lot of the higer profile companies change week by week on what place terms they offer. This week at The Barclays PaddyPower, SkyBet & StanJames are still offering places on the top 7 and 6 respectively! For the European Tour event, all bookies are 1/4 odds for the top 5 places.
This Week’s Outlay – 20 pts
Thank you all for the continued positive responses over my articles. Hope you have a nice week, and good luck to all those following,
@PriestleyStuart
Contact: sjpriestley_pga@btinternet.com
Hi All,
Last Week’s Outlay 25 pts
Last Week’s Return 38.5 pts (+
13.5pts)
Year To Date + 449.75
Well an exiting week last week with our 150/1 shot Marcus Fraser leading the Olympics at
the half way stage; he wasn’t able to keep up with the pace over weekend, and it took a
good birdie putt on the very last hole to see him place in 5th for us which was very nice,
securing profit for the week, with Grillo just finishing outside the places in 8th.
The above forms an interesting point regarding a few bits I have mentions over the past
months, ensure you are getting the best deal for your stake, if you had of placed your bet
with WilliamHill for example, rather than the recommended SkyBet etc, you would not of
received a penny back. Secondly ensure you are clear regarding deadheat rules, this is why I
have always favoured SkyBet, as unless they are not offering bonus places over and above
the standard 5, they always pay out in full at ¼ odds for the top 5.
Moving on to this week I have concentrated my attentions on the PGA tour, and selections
can be found below.
Wyndham Championship, PGA Tour – 10 pts Outlay
at Sedgefield Country Club, 7,127 yards, par 70 – Thursday August 18th to Sunday August
21st
The Wyndham is the last counting event before the FedEx Cup Playoff series begins next
week with The Barclays so the players are looking to finish inside the top 125 on the
Last Week’s Outlay 25 pts
Last Week’s Return 38.5 pts (+
13.5pts)
Year To Date + 449.75
rankings to secure their playing privileges for next season and to gain a place in the field at
Bethpage Black next Thursday.
Following on from last week's similar test at the John Deere Classic, the Wyndham is
another event in which length is not the be all and end all. Finding the fairways at
Sedgefield, in order to best attack the small greens, is of more importance than hitting it
miles off the tee. In the eight renewals here, since the event returned to Sedgefield, 16th
(Patrick Reed) is the worst any winner has ranked for Driving Accuracy.
Davis Love III ranked fifth for Par 4 Scoring 12 months ago and the runner-up, Jason Gore,
ranked 16th and that was first time since 2008 that the number one ranked player on the
par fours didn't finish first or second so that looks a key stat.
NOTE: Please do be careful and aware of who you are betting with for the golf, amazingly a lot of the
higer profile companies change week by week on wha place terms they offer for the medal places,
however, this week PaddyPower & StanJames are still offering places on the top 7 and 6
respectively!
NAP – WEBB SIMPSON 25/1 (PaddyPower) 2.5 pts EW
The 2011 winner, Webb Simpson, absolutely loves Sedgefield Country Club and it would
have been very difficult indeed not to back him. His form figures here read 8th, 1st, 22nd, 11th,
5th and 6th and he was beaten by just two strokes last year, despite missing eight putts from
inside six feet!
With the anchoring ban coming into force, Webb was transitioning from long to short putter
last year and how the short stick behaves will determine how he performs this week. There
have been some very encouraging signs with the putter of late - enabling him to finish 3rd at
the Dean & Deluca Invitational, 6th at the Quicken Loans National and 13th at the USPGA
Championship and it’s hard not to see him do really well this week.
NB – BRANDT SNEDEKER 28/1 (StanJames & BetVictor) 1.5 pts EW
Sitting in 6th place in the FedEx Cup rankings Brandt Snedeker arrives to a course in which
he shot a course record equalling 61 as recently as last year; this coupled with a 5th place
finish in 2014 where he shot all four rounds in the 60s shows he has no troubles in
navigating his way around Sedgefield. With six top 10 finishes to his name this season,
including a win, 2016 form is as good as ever, and with the short game skills Brandt possess
he will be sure to be near the top of the leaderboard come close of play Sunday evening.
IWAC – BILL HAAS 28/1 (PaddyPower) 1 pt EW
Another Sedgefield specialist Bill Haas is in good enough form to go close once again. For
the last four years in a row, Bill has not been outside of the top 20 once, with form of 6th,
2nd, 20th and 7th to his name, including two rounds of 65 and a 64. Sitting in 31st position in
the FedEx cup rankings, it has been a solid enough season so far without being spectacular;
there have been six top 10 finish in addition to a runners up finish at the Valspar in June. I
mentioned in the earlier event introduction that accuracy off the tee usually proves to be a
worthy stat here, and with averaging over 62.8% for fairways hit, this also goes in Bill’s
favour this week.
This Week’s Outlay – 10 pts
Have a nice week, and good luck if following,
Stu
@PriestleyStuart
