Tuesday, 15 October 2019

Mark Johnston wind ops 'tragedy for racing industry'

horse racing
Mark Johnston has slated the BHA's decision to make known horses that have had a wind operation since their last run. 

The qualified vet/trainer described it as a tragedy. 

He said: "I think it's a tragedy for the industry and the breed that the BHA has brought in this rule," he said. "I think it's based on bad science and we've got a further unlevelling of the international field, where we're going to be giving misinformation to punters and I fear there is a welfare issue.
"As is the case over jumps, or what we believe is the case, there are large numbers of horses having surgery unnecessarily because of this belief it will improve their performance. I fear this will push over to the Flat and we've seen there are a lot of misguided people out there who seem to believe these procedures make a horse run faster.
"So long as they believe that and so long as the breeders are concerned about it being known their horses have had wind surgery, we're now going to see the situation on the Flat with horses having surgery before they run, completely unnecessarily."
"In general I can say they're not successful. Whether they work at all, the jury is still out and has been a long time. The procedures have changed dramatically since I qualified as a vet and during the time I've been training; new procedures coming in and out of fashion and that's simply because there's no consensus whether they work.
"I asked my senior vet if they work, and he said, 'No'. I asked my wife Deirdre if they work, and she said, 'Sometimes'. So we went through the horses who had had them and we found five who had significantly improved. That's a ten percent success rate, but how many of mine improved who didn't have wind surgery? Probably ten percent, so it's bad science to look at these figures."
Johnston, speaking as a guest on Luck On Sunday, also thought the idea more information being available would help the sport was wrong.
He said: "It's only going to be documented that British-trained horses have had surgery since their last run. It's not going to be documented how many had surgery before they ever ran or those coming in from abroad, so we're just muddying the waters even more."
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Friday, 4 October 2019

Psychology can improve your betting performance

Psychology: the study of behaviour and mind. To many, this offshoot of philosophy is akin to witchcraft. Others, it is just common sense. While for the majority: ''mumbo jumbo''. 

The strange thing about psychology is that we know it works. There have been studies which show when you walk into a supermarket, we walk so many paces before stopping, turning, and look around. You've probably done it a thousand times and never thought about it. It's walking, you stopped, so what! 

That's why someone had the brainwave of making sure the isles, offers or security guard (joke) are seemingly waiting at the right place to get you to buy. 

It begs the question, how many other things work like that? It is worrying to some extent as you may find yourself buying things, saying yes to someone who five minutes ago gave you a free pen, or liking someone or something that in ways always repulsed you before. You just put it down to being Friday! 

The power of psychology. Neuromarketing. Mumbo jumbo. 

Have you ever watched a TV advert and thought 'what's that all about'. McDonald's with its catchy whistle. Tapping into all those difference senses so you when you want a burger, you find yourself in their queue ''Cheeseburger, please!''. 

You robot! 

I guess we are a little fearful of the unknown. What's happening to me? I went to the shops to buy a packet of sweets and returned with a vacuum cleaner.

What are those bookmakers are doing with all this witchcraft? 

If you open a new account, we will give you 10/1 that Chelsea beat Whatever United! I see it somewhere else 5/4. 

But what about all those subtle things. You go in the bookies and someone asks if you want a cup of tea. Milk. Sugar. (How much did that cost me?)

I studied psychology and gained a degree a number of years ago. Social psychology is intriguing because it finds ways of tapping into the human condition to get you buying. Why is one salesman so much better than the rest of the team? If you studied this person you would identify how and why.

But how does this all related to an individual like you or me making psychology work for us to be a better gambler or win more money?

The key to finding winners is , in many ways, watching, taking note, and understanding winners. For instance, one aspect which often reveals bigger odds (value) is the contrast theory. Basically, if one horse beats another, many punters, bookmakers, layers will fancy the same result if they oppose each other at a later date. I know there may be changing variables such as weight, going, distance etc. However, it has been proven that people often assess the likelihood of the previous winner as having a greater chance of victory than it does. Meaning that the favourite is often under priced whereas the beaten horse is actually value at bigger odds.

Just stop for a moment, and consider how many other aspect of psychology could be at play when you bet. 

Monday, 23 September 2019

Gambler Wins At Grosvenor Casino Great Yarmouth

Great Yarmouth Grosvenor Casino We're back from our annual pilgrimage to Great Yarmouth. 

It's in memory of my late father, Colin and many relatives sadly passed including uncle Fred, Keith, Roy and their friends who loved a bet. 

Avid readers will probably know we go to Yarmouth for fun, gambling and good food. The gambling part takes centre stage although I don't bet big money at the races on holiday compared with working from home. I find it difficult to be as professional as in my daily routines. The caravan I shared with a group of five isn't the most ideal place to contemplate wise bets although I did settle in with the holiday distractions better than I thought. 

I went to a couple of the race meetings and found a few winners which made it worthwhile. 

I missed meeting up with Jerry Banks which is a real shame. Jerry runs the great website called Jerry's Best Bets. He found the winner in the Listed race at Yarmouth, Beautiful Morning, who pretty much sauntered home in style. 

The casino wasn't such a pleasurable experience. I do enjoy the Grosvenor Casino because it is an old listed building with real character and charm. It is a great place to go for a cheap meal. They want to get you through the door and lose your money. I have done well at the casino over the last few years and, believe it or not, won money. This time the roulette wheel was spinning without luck and over three nights took a wedge out of my wallet. Not good. It can be depressing betting, watching that bloody ball stop in a number you haven't picked. 

It seems so easy after it has stopped! 

I'm still winning long term but not a great deal. The casino tempts punters from the races by giving a free drink and free bet to all who take their race badge. Basically, it is like them giving you £10 for free. Considering most people lose it is probably the best £10 they have ever spend on marketing. 

It is interesting watching others gamble. 

You get a real mix of people. Some betting 50p chips, £1 chips...while a few are either there to impress or just don't know when to stop. 

I guess everyone has their limit. 

I've been to the Grosvenor a lot and you see a few familiar faces. I'm pretty sure the majority of their customers are regular bettors. I say that because even mid-week they look a familiar crowd. 

A couple of them pretty big gamblers.

Each to their own. I have chatted to one or two in passing but not to appreciate their background or where they made their money. However, they are clearly not short of cash by the manner they bet. 

One of the regulars is Graham. He dresses in a comfortable fashion which belies how much he bets. He isn't there to impress in the fashion stakes but boy does he get the money out as that roulette wheel spins for its life scorching the veneer while fate decides your fortune. 

Graham didn't have the normal pink chips worth £100. In fact, at first, I couldn't see where he was getting his chips from. The croupier kept pushing £500 of £5 chips in his direction and then five £100 chips. So he was cashing up £1000 a time. I noticed he had a number of light-blue chips worth a grand a piece. 

To be fair, he was having about as much luck as me for the most part. He wistfully placed £500 in £5 chips across the table and lost the lot in about six consecutive spins. He carried on betting regardless if not with extra verve as he started putting the five £100 chips on too hoping lady luck would come smiling after a number of dastardly verdicts. 

Thankfully, Graham hit a single number with one of his £100 chips winning £3500. I heard him mention he was down £6000 before that win. I had seen him on the other table a bit earlier. 

Where do these people get all their money from? I will have to get chatting to him some time although he isn't really my kind of person or at least that is how I feel.  

The fine dining part comes from visiting Pamela's restaurant just around the corner from the casino. A jewel in the crown of Yarmouth. Well worth a visit with exceptional service and gourmet delights. I had one of those cocktails made with dry ice which looks rather spectacular if not difficult to drink as I kept breathing in those fumes. A great few days down Yarmouth. 

Thinking of those loving people past & present. 

Friday, 13 September 2019

Dumb Pro Gambler | Can This Be True?

Boris Johnson at Casino
Have you heard about this...

I was contacted by someone the other day via email with ''You really need to hear about this''. I thought, right!. 

Someone named James [H******] sent me an email with the subject line: Professional Gambler's Info...

Considering I run a website called Professional Gamblers I just imagined it related to that, wanting information etc. However, the email continued to explain how someone very well known within the racing media had contacted them with a get rich scheme about betting and winning big. I looked at this detailed summary which identified a way of manipulating the exchanges with a simple method. I thought this must be a lot of rubbish. You get these things forwarded all the time. 

It's interesting that on first review it was actually well worked. Like most of these approaches, it looks very simple when you see the formula. I was asked to look at this info for this bloke who was sceptical. Anyway, I'm restricted by what I can say because it's his info. I will, though, find a way of detailing a variant of this stuff for readers if it actually amounts to something worthy of your time. 

All of this ''keep it to yourself'' info made me remember a time I knew a trader on the exchanges. Someone who actually made very good money from their knowledge. I will not say any names because it wouldn't be fair. They used to work in an executive position and gave that up to work from home, more time with the family and making more money. I know for a fact, they made very good money. The interesting part, is that they were, perhaps, a touch greedy and wanted to get a bit of extra cash and considered they could afford to let a few people into their idea. They did seem pretty stern in noting that if they ever saw someone trying to sell this idea that they would sue them. I'm a man of my word, so I had/have no intention of undermining them or being untrustworthy. I paid a three-figure sum.  In fact, it was £250 for the equivalent of reading about 50 words.The cost put off a lot of people. Although there were only about 10 places being sold so it was on a first come first served basis. 

I received the info. It was pretty basic but logical. I could see how it could be used and appreciate that it worked. I use Betfair, but not the ladder trading. Take a look at this link if you want to read more about this style of betting on the exchanges. It was so alien to the way I work that I didn't even attempt to use it. This style of trading needs an ultra quick mind and reflexes as fast as arcade game player. It's like shooting space invaders but making money. It was just something that I could never get to grips with. It made my style of working look old and outdated. I didn't care if my way was old hat because it made me money as it still does to this day. 

I lost track with the bloke who I bought the info from so I don't know what he's up to these days or whether he went broke or sitting on a yacht in the Bahamas. The info he sold me still awaits the day I decide to do something with it. 

Even though it sounds expensive, it was worth every penny because I know something that most people will never know... 

I wonder what email I will get tomorrow? 

Sunday, 8 September 2019

Great Yarmouth Grosvenor Casino Heading To Shadingfield Lodge

In the next two weeks, I will be travelling back to West Palm Beach, Florida. A change from our cold British weather to the tropics. Fifty days of paradise. Best of all, I get to see my beautiful Marlene. 

Before I leave, I've booked a night's stay at the Nelson Hotel at Great Yarmouth. I usually go to the Andover Hotel but I'm going with my brothers. At £65 for a family room and breakfast included it is perfect for a night away. 

So why are we going to Yarmouth?

As usual, it's one of two things: horse racing or the Grosvenor casino (often both). Well, there's no racing at this time of the year [being a Flat turf course]. We're having a night at the casino. I do enjoy this listed building. Shadingfield Lodge was built in the Victorian era and even frequented by Queen Victoria's son and future king of England Edward VII. 

Enough of the history lesson. 

The casino has a touch of class and the staff always bend over backwards to keep you happy. 

Now we know any casino can be a place where you go in all dressed up and come out losing your shirt. That doesn't need to be the case if you have discipline. You can enjoy a night out and it really doesn't need to cost much at all. In fact, with a touch of luck, you can return home with money in your pocket. 

I always play roulette. Saying that I have played three card poker. I  have been lucky and won a couple of times but the casino rake is on the high side especially if you play pair plus. To be honest, you will do well not to lose playing three card poker. I've had some seriously good hands and still wasn't pleased with the money I won. It is a very difficult game to win over an evening. 

Roulette is the best of all games to play at the casino. I think the take out is low which means if you have a touch of luck you can win. I always bet on a single number and corner. I simply look to see which number has come up a few times in the last two or three hours and stick with it. There is no logic to why the number should be any better than the other but it seems the case the same numbers come up on an evening. I've had plenty of evenings where the same number has come up four or five times. It's like getting a prial on three card poker. For that to happen on an evening of playing cards is exceptionally unlikely. 

Anyway, we will be heading to Great Yarmouth in the next two weeks and see if lady luck comes walking through the room. 

Those fifty pence chips go a long way. 

Monday, 19 August 2019

Should I Follow the Money When Betting?

Did you see that well-backed horse - hosed up!

How many times have you seen a horse backed off the boards win? When you flick through the results they all seem to win. But is that really the case? I don't know many different areas of horse racing, but I do understand two-year-old horse racing to a very high standard. After studying this niche for over 30-years, I can speak with some authority. However, in truth, the only way to make an objective assessment is to run a statistical test on the data to see if it is significant.

Data has power and limitation. 

I have little doubt following money within two-year-old racing is worthy of note from a trainer perspective. I have run studies on all juvenile trainer debut runners and horses making their second start. A good few trainers are very consistent and this is backed up by regular profits.I don't want to detail any specific names because this information is hard to find. It is similar to following the seam of gold and hope it leads to a major find. 

What I would say, is that two-year-old horse trainers have a much better strike rate on their second start compared with debut. Hardly surprising, hey? Although a couple of trainers feature just about as good results on both starts. This proves how fit some trainers get their horses. It is important to understand the intent of owners and trainers. If they don't want to win on debut they are very unlikely to do so.  

Interestingly, the betting is very important for most horses racing on their second start. In fact, I would suggest that a small drift from one price to the next can be the difference between winning and losing. Anything can happen in racing. Even the biggest, most powerful stables, can win a 50/1. Simply because they prove a surprise package or the opposition are poor or a favourite disappoints. 

In general, the betting of most two-year-old horses is significant. Smaller trainers can get lucky and have a real star in their stable but even these are usually known as a talent before the start of the race. They are backed. 

Tuesday, 13 August 2019

The Perception of the Gamble

Life's a gamble. 

That's what they say.

When people say they don't gamble, what do you think? Wise, stupid, intelligent, absurd? 

I guess when people say they don't gamble they simply mean they don't gamble with a regular bet on the horses, dogs, the proverbial two flies crawling up a wall.

I wonder how many of those people bet on the lottery?  



January 6th, 1996 saw the very first double rollover in the United Kingdom, prompting a staggering 86% of the population of Britain to dash out to buy a ticket!


Strangely, the majority of those people don't gamble. Or they would tell you they don't gamble. 

Well, they certainly did that week. 

The everyday gambler is seen as a mug punter. But as with every aspect of life, we go from the novice to the expert. The main difference between the two is that the expert has worked hard to understand their subject matter. They are wise, efficient and studious. That still doesn't guarantee they will be a winner or make money on their investments. 

Consider how differently you may view these professions: stockbroker, a professional gambler.  

The old stereotypes hit your synapses like a lorry smashing into a wall. 

Well, one is kind of a posh professional, while the other wears a dodgy mac, has a roll up hanging from his mouth and shifty looking. Is that a bundle of notes in his pocket or a gun or a sudden attack of arousal?

I guess you get a few stockbrokers who look the same but both are rather peculiar perceptions. Walter Lippman coined the phrase stereotype a fascinating, intelligent and noted Pulitzer Prize winner 1958, 1962. 


Roll a dice - one or six. What odds would tempt you to bet?


You know there is a price at which only a fool would turn down a gamble. Surely you are not one of those fools?

An example of stereotypes: if I said I knew a French professional gambler you may see an imagine of him riding a cycle, wearing a beret and a string of onions hanging around his neck. 

But that is the thing about the mysterious, illicit, looked-down upon everyday gambler. Look at that idiot, he thinks he can beat the bookmakers. 

Well, I'm here to tell you that's exactly what many gamblers do on a regular basis. The perception is that a bookmaker will always triumph over a gambler. He's the vampire bat sucking the blood out of a nieve punter who doesn't even realise its latched on the back of his neck.

It is difficult to draw the line between where a gamble starts and finished. You are not probably conscious of the gambles you are taking on a daily basis. Perhaps you are. Lucky you...





When crossing the road, few people are stupid enough to walk across without taking a glance left and right. If you are super cautious you may even look in the air for falling pianos and the like.The odds of getting knocked down on the road are real. They don't simply disappear because you haven't given them the time of day. Insurance companies could tell you the odds and they would rob you blind if you asked for a bet on that poor old dear who isn't as nimble as she once was on her feet.

Wouldn't you rather be conscious of the gamble? You may be able to negate those odds, increase your chance of winning or even life a little longer than you thought.