Sunday, 9 September 2018

Three National Hunt Horses to Follow in 2018/19 Season

Might Bite
It won’t be long until the leading national hunt horses return to the racecourse after their summer break for the 2018/19 campaign. The November meeting at Cheltenham, Tingle Creek at Sandown and King George at Kempton are some of the leading events in the early stages of the season, while all roads then lead to Cheltenham for the Festival in March. 

Here is a look at five horses to follow during the new season which could help it become a profitable national hunt campaign for you as a punter.

Might Bite

Might Bite had to settle for second place last season in the Cheltenham Gold Cup behind Native River in what was his first attempt at the Blue Riband event of the meeting. Nicky Henderson’s chaser proved across the campaign though, that he is one of the leading horses in the UK and Ireland in the 3m division as he had success in the Grade One King George VI Chase and Aintree Bowl during the Grand National meeting. Might Bite is 6/1 to win the 2019 Cheltenham Gold Cup which may prove to be a big price if he lands some of the major races before the Festival. There are doubts about the fitness of many of his rivals ahead of the new campaign and he will be into his second season in the open-age category, therefore he should be able to lean on his experience to good effect.

Le Prezian 

Le Prezian was a regular in the big handicap chases at Cheltenham last season and he got his reward for a consistent campaign as he won the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup. The seven-year-old is sure to return for the Cheltenham meeting in November where he is will be one of the favourites in the betting to land the feature race on the Saturday. Le Prezian finished third in the 2m4f contest in 2017 but he is improving all the time so could be the one to beat this time around at a course he does so well at. It is difficult to say what his target will be in March as connections bid for back-to-back Festival wins, however, as we have seen with horses in the past, those who have won at the meeting have gone on to prevail there again further down the line.


Samcro Cheltenham Festival 2019
Samcro

One of the star novice hurdlers in the 2017/18 national hunt season was Samcro who is trained in Ireland by Gordon Elliott. The Irish horse won his first four races of the campaign, including the Grade One Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham. Unfortunately, the season ended on a disappointing note for Samcro as he fell in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle back in April. That error three hurdles from home should not put a dark cloud over what was an excellent campaign for the novice. The big test will be against the older horses this season and he does prove himself, he could earn himself a shot at the Champion Hurdle in March at the Festival.

Saturday, 25 August 2018

4 Dark Horses To Win on Debut for Charlie Appleby

The two-year-old season is warming up nicely. Just seen the Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) at York and it's great to see Kevin Ryan win with Emaraaty Ana. 

Being a specialist in two-year-old horse racing, I have four dark horses to make the most of any bet or wagers if you so choose. 

Make sure you check out BetVictor's new offer ''the guaranteed bet'' which is great news for those who struggle to get their bets placed. All new customers are guaranteed a chance to win up to £500 on every UK and Irish horse race. Ideal for these potentially smart horses all trained by Godolphin's Charlie Appleby because they are winners waiting to happen. 

Wings Of Time:

Godolphin is always a power of strength with an impressive string of horses. That's why you need to take note when they detail one of their two-year-old talents. This son of Invincible Spirit is out of a twice-winning mare, who was successful at Listed class and competed up to Group 1. This bay colt will be making his debut before the end of the season and worth pencilling in your mythical notepad. 

Court Poet:

If the expectations of  Wings Of Time are high then this son of Dubawi could be exceptional. The mare raced once but this two-year-old is definitely worth a bet on debut. Even without knowing where he will run I am confident he will start favourite. Why? Because his reputation will precede him. Also, the dogs have been barking on Newmarket gallops. So what else have we got to say about this talent? Well, this March foal holds three significant entries for top two-year-old races here and in Ireland. If this horse doesn't win a race I will be very surprised. Note: won on debut. 

Magic Illusion:

I'm quite taken with this bay colt, who is a son of Dubawi. Readers may remember the mare called Pimpernel who won on debut when trained by the disgraced Mahmood Al Zarooni. She won four from eleven starts including a Listed race. A couple of raced in Meydan. She won almost £100,000 in total prize earnings. Appleby has this colt entered for a couple of big races including the Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2). This two-year-old had an entry for the National Stakes (Group 1) so been held in some regard since early season. 

Ophelia's Dream:

This chestnut filly is a daughter of Dubawi is homebred out of a truly talented mare named Hibaayeb who was trained by Saeed bin Suroor. She raced fourteen times achieving four wins, two seconds and four thirds. Her two-year-old career was with Clive Brittain who won the Fillies' Mile at Newmarket. This was her first victory in the formative season although a runner-up spot in the May Hill Stakes (Group 2) proved ample ability. Bin Suroor took charge at three. She ran well on a number of occasions and a Grade 1 victory at Hollywood Park, USA saw her win $93K. Far from disgraced next start when placed eighth although beaten less than three lengths in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1). In total, Hibaayeb won over £400,000 in prize money. If taking after mother or father Ophelia's Dream will be a winner in waiting. 

Saturday, 18 August 2018

Betting Strategy: Why You Should Bet Big

Betting strategy - How to win big
Gambling. What comes to mind when you think of a gamble? Fun, the buzz, investment? I guess for most people it is a bit of fun - something to do to make that football match more interesting! 

I would suggest to all that you should never bet for fun. Why? Because it can be a slippery slope to a bad habit. How is it that some people are more prone to becoming addicted than others?  If psychology had the answer it would be a benefit to many who simply cannot walk past bookmakers without ''popping in for a little bet''.  

If you bet for fun - you need discipline. How many people bet with discipline? I have known a lot of very intelligent people. What I have observed about their betting is pure chaos without logic. It is literally like they have had a lobotomy. Remember the film One Flew over the Cuckoos Nest?  

Some people look at a race card, anticipate a bet, and a numbness comes across their senses, provoking a thought which lacks any understanding. It leads to loss, frustration and desperation (for some).

Bet with matchsticks if you notice your wallet is getting thinner with every bet. 

I guess you are thinking why is he mentioning all this stuff about not betting when the title is suggesting you bet more. 

If you put the time into learning how to gamble (bet, invest, wager) successfully then you should consider increasing your stake significantly. 

Why?

The time it takes to follow your niche to the highest level takes time. You simply cannot afford to be betting small stakes. Even if you are making decent money because you have big-priced winners it still doesn't make sense. 

Also, it helps focus the mind. A professional attitude leads to a professional approach. 

It can be so easy to bet smaller stakes to a point that it feels difficult to adjust even when your betting bank details you can afford to go to the next level. 

Once you start betting bigger stakes you will notice a big difference in how you look at your betting. Instead of creating problems it actually helps free the mind. Becuase you take those best bets seriously and they are the focus of your day. You are not searching for bets or distracted by white noise. 

Think about it...you bet £5 a time...does it matter whether you lose a small amount of money? However, over the weeks, months and years that continual five pounds equal a significant sum. Seven bets a week at five pound a time is thirty-five quid. Over a year we are talking almost a couple hundred shy of two grand. 

That is a significant sum. 

No one is saying you don't have winners. Some people may even be in profit over the season. But what will those £5 bets at 7/4f win you? What, the potential to win £20, £50 or £100 if you are lucky. 

Think if you had ten bets of £200 or twenty of £100. How would this impact your betting? I can guarantee you would think differently. That is the point at question. That difference between big and small bet detail a problem. Because, surely, there should be no difference. Without even betting, if you have a paper trail betting with your fictional £2000 at £100 a time. You will notice a difference. However, betting real money at big stakes will transform your understand, practice and success. It will also answer any questions you have about whether gambling is for you. Should you even carry on? 

I would rather lose £2000 with a chance of winning decent money and stop betting than carry on regardless thinking these small bets don't ''really'' matter. ''It's a bit of fun, hey?'' You know, that £2000 pales into insignificance over a lifetime. 

Gambling is a serious subject which needs similar thought and consideration. 

Don't bet for fun. 

Tuesday, 14 August 2018

Gambler Wins At Grosvenor Casino Great Yarmouth

Great Yarmouth Grosvenor Casino We're back from our annual pilgrimage to Great Yarmouth. 

It's in memory of my late father, Colin and many relatives sadly passed including uncle Fred, Keith, Roy and their friends who loved a bet. 

Avid readers will probably know we go to Yarmouth for fun, gambling and good food. The gambling part takes centre stage although I don't bet big money at the races on holiday compared with working from home. I find it difficult to be as professional as in my daily routines. The caravan I shared with a group of five isn't the most ideal place to contemplate wise bets although I did settle in with the holiday distractions better than I thought. 

I went to a couple of the race meetings and found a few winners which made it worthwhile. 

I missed meeting up with Jerry Banks which is a real shame. Jerry runs the great website called Jerry's Best Bets. He found the winner in the Listed race at Yarmouth, Beautiful Morning, who pretty much sauntered home in style. 

The casino wasn't such a pleasurable experience. I do enjoy the Grosvenor Casino because it is an old listed building with real character and charm. It is a great place to go for a cheap meal. They want to get you through the door and lose your money. I have done well at the casino over the last few years and, believe it or not, won money. This time the roulette wheel was spinning without luck and over three nights took a wedge out of my wallet. Not good. It can be depressing betting, watching that bloody ball stop in a number you haven't picked. 

It seems so easy after it has stopped! 

I'm still winning long term but not a great deal. The casino tempts punters from the races by giving a free drink and free bet to all who take their race badge. Basically, it is like them giving you £10 for free. Considering most people lose it is probably the best £10 they have ever spend on marketing. 

It is interesting watching others gamble. 

You get a real mix of people. Some betting 50p chips, £1 chips...while a few are either there to impress or just don't know when to stop. 

I guess everyone has their limit. 

I've been to the Grosvenor a lot and you see a few familiar faces. I'm pretty sure the majority of their customers are regular bettors. I say that because even mid-week they look a familiar crowd. 

A couple of them pretty big gamblers.

Each to their own. I have chatted to one or two in passing but not to appreciate their background or where they made their money. However, they are clearly not short of cash by the manner they bet. 

One of the regulars is Graham. He dresses in a comfortable fashion which belies how much he bets. He isn't there to impress in the fashion stakes but boy does he get the money out as that roulette wheel spins for its life scorching the veneer while fate decides your fortune. 

Graham didn't have the normal pink chips worth £100. In fact, at first, I couldn't see where he was getting his chips from. The croupier kept pushing £500 of £5 chips in his direction and then five £100 chips. So he was cashing up £1000 a time. I noticed he had a number of light-blue chips worth a grand a piece. 

To be fair, he was having about as much luck as me for the most part. He wistfully placed £500 in £5 chips across the table and lost the lot in about six consecutive spins. He carried on betting regardless if not with extra verve as he started putting the five £100 chips on too hoping lady luck would come smiling after a number of dastardly verdicts. 

Thankfully, Graham hit a single number with one of his £100 chips winning £3500. I heard him mention he was down £6000 before that win. I had seen him on the other table a bit earlier. 

Where do these people get all their money from? I will have to get chatting to him some time although he isn't really my kind of person or at least that is how I feel.  

The fine dining part comes from visiting Pamela's restaurant just around the corner from the casino. A jewel in the crown of Yarmouth. Well worth a visit with exceptional service and gourmet delights. I had one of those cocktails made with dry ice which looks rather spectacular if not difficult to drink as I kept breathing in those fumes. A great few days down Yarmouth. 

Thinking of those loving people past & present. 

Friday, 10 August 2018

Saxon Warrior Can Bounce Back In Juddmonte International

Saxon Warrior went into the 2018 Flat season as the horse most people were excited about watching after his impressive two-year-old campaign. He justified the strong support behind him by winning the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. Sadly, his form has dipped since then; however, Aidan O’Brien’s runner should not be disregarded ahead of the Juddmonte International, where he could be the value bet to land the Group One Contest. The son of Deep Impact has had four runs in 2018 so far in what has been a busy opening half to his campaign. He was unable to add to his Classic tally in the Derby or Irish Derby as he finished fourth and third respectably, despite going off as the hot favourite on both of those occasions.

Backers of Saxon Warrior at York can be very encouraged by his performance in the Eclipse Stakes on his latest start, where he battled with Roaring Lion up to the line at Sandown in the Group One race. Although he was beaten by a neck by John Gosden’s colt, all the battling qualities that the Irish horse has were on display, which suggests he is close to being back to his best. 


O’Brien’s star has been given such much-needed rest since the Eclipse Stakes; therefore, he should be fresh for his shot at the Juddmonte International. He is available at 5/1 in the horse racing betting for the race, which takes place during the Ebor Festival on the Knavesmire, and that price looks very generous from the bookmakers.


This year’s renewal of the Juddmonte International could the strongest in many years. Poet’s Ward heads the betting at 5/2 to win his third consecutive Group One race. Sir Michael Stoute’s horse claimed the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot when he upset the odds-on favourite Cracksman. He then followed that up with victory in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, where he got the better of his stablemate Crystal Ocean in a close tussle at Ascot. A victory at York for the horse could see him crowned as the leading middle-distance runner in 2018.

Gosden will be hoping Roaring Lion can build upon his Eclipse success when he returns at the Yorkshire track. Although he did get the better of Saxon Warrior at Sandown, the Irish horse won their battle in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster last year and when they met in the 2000 Guineas back in May; therefore, he is capable of reversing the result with the Group One winner later this month. 

The Juddmonte International could act as the race in which the 2017 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Enable makes her return to the racecourse. The filly has not been seen on the racecourse since her success at Chantilly last October due to a leg injury. Connections have reported she is making good progress and although they have entered the four-year-old in the race at York, they will not be prepared to rush her back and thusly she might be more likely to appear in the September Stakes at Kempton instead.

Aidan O’Brien has won the Juddmonte International on five occasions and if he feels Saxon Warrior is good enough to win the contest, the colt should be trusted and backed to give the world record-breaking trainer his sixth victory.

Tuesday, 24 July 2018

3 Dark Horses 2018

Karl Burke Horse Trainer
The two-year-old horse racing season it building a head of steam and Patient Speculation has its finger on the throttle. We know our readers love to bet so check out www.novibet.co.uk to see the latest odds on all your horse racing meeting. We are lucky enough to have some excellent contact who detail the best two-year-old race horses in training. In fact, big or small stable we can find their secret weapons - those dark horses which get the column inches. 

Take a look at these talented two-year-olds:

Art Du Val - Trained by Charlie Appleby 

Godolphin have been a little hit and miss with their two-year-olds this season. However, they have still hit the mark with a few fair talents. Remember La Pelosa, Quorto and Beyond Reason. They have all shown ample ability, some racing at Group class. One debutante worthy of respect is Art Du Val. This bay colt is a son of Nay Say Never who cost 120,000G when purchased at the yearling sales. The mare raced just four times and runner-up on a couple of outings competing up to listed class. Art Dul Val was meant to run around mid July but a non runner. He is clearly held in some regard being given a coupe of significant entries including a Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) & Futurity Stake (Group 2) in Ireland. This is just one of two entries for the Gimcrack from this stable which looks a very big indicator to ability. Should go well on debut.  

Lady Aria - Trained by Michael Bell 

Michael Bell is a a gifted trainer but often difficult to assess with his debutantes. They can win but that is usually the reserve for the best in the stable. Others may prove disappointing before improving on their second start. Lady Aria is worth noting because she is one of three two-year-olds the handler has entered for the Lowther Stakes (Group 2). This British-bred daughter of Kodiac cost 125,000G at the yearling sales now in the ownership of Amo Racing Ltd. 

Lady In France - Trained by Karl Burke 

One of my favourite trainers. A superb handler of two-year-olds. You only have to look back to Quiet Reflection for Onetoawinner racing syndicate. Whether he has anything of that class is another thing. However, he does exceptionally well with his two-year-olds and that's reason enough to take note of Lady In France. This February foal is a bay daughter of Showcasing in the ownership of Clipper Logistics. She cost 210,000G. The mare won on her second start. Although just a fair handicapper with a rating in the 80s she was a consistent type who plied her trade up to listed class. Lady In France has been given a Lowther Stakes (Group 2) entry. The only other horse to be given such an entry is Little Kim who won easily on debut and won a Group 3 race in France. I get a good feel about this filly.

Good luck. 

Monday, 16 July 2018

5 Ways Psychology can Improve your Gambling

Psychology And Gambling
Psychology – the study of behaviour and mind. I think you will agree it is a fascinating subject because it helps identify knew wisdom, understanding and advancement of the human condition. 

You may have seen the subject of psychology detailed within gambling as psychopathology. Research relating to addiction, which is a problem for many who lose control and betting to a point of harm. I have always been interested in the other side of the coin. How can we use psychology to actually improve our chance of winning? It's a topic of conversation that I have heard very little news. However, I have spent many hours reading psychology books from a quantitative and qualitative perspective and these tips can help you win when betting on the horses. 

1) The chair you sit It sounds a crazy idea but research has shown that the chair you sit when making your tips can be the difference between winning and losing. Or, at least, improving your chances of making it a profitable day. It was found that people sitting on a harder chair were harder negotiators than those who sat in comfort. 

2) Be Careful who you listen to You may not realise it, but you are influenced without knowing. The racing paper, TV channel, opinions and thoughts can easily sway your judgement. If you have good reason to follow your tip – don't be swayed. 

3) Become an expert Can the novice punter be better than the expert? It is said that it takes 10,000 hours or study to become an expert of any subject. Make sure you put in the hours and especially work within a niche. It will give you a huge advantage over the opposition. 

4) I followed that horse off a cliff We've all been there. I bet on that horse the last three times so I can't afford to let it go by today. You probably didn't realise but this is psychology at work. You are much more likely to bet on an old favourite horse that new name because of this previous relationship. However, you need to keep this point in mind as all too often this type of horse disappoint and become very costly to follow. 

5) The Contrast Theory This is worth noting. How many times have you seen one horse beat another only to see them re-oppose next start. Take a look at the betting. The beaten horse is likely to be a bigger prize. Not a surprise you might say. But how big are the odds? The human condition details that we often make mistakes in this area and favour the previous winner much more than we should to a level where the outsider of the two horses is a value bet. If the horse looks to have a reason why it could improve: going, distance, jockey it may be the bet. The next time you place a bet, take a moment to consider how psychology may have helped or hindered your chance of winning.