Saturday, 23 May 2020

Psychology can Improve your Betting Performance

Psychology can improve your betting performance
Psychology: the study of behaviour and mind. To many, this offshoot of philosophy is akin to witchcraft. Others, it is just common sense. While for the majority: ''mumbo jumbo''. 

The strange thing about psychology is that we know it works. There have been studies which show when you walk into a supermarket, we walk so many paces before stopping, turning, and look around. You've probably done it a thousand times and never thought about it. It's walking, you stopped, so what! 

That's why someone had the brainwave of making sure the isles, offers or security guard (joke) are seemingly waiting at the right place to get you to buy. 

It begs the question, how many other things work like that? It is worrying to some extent as you may find yourself buying things, saying yes to someone who five minutes ago gave you a free pen, or liking someone or something that in ways always repulsed you before. You just put it down to being Friday! 

The power of psychology. Neuromarketing. Mumbo jumbo. 

Have you ever watched a TV advert and thought 'what's that all about'. McDonald's with its catchy whistle. Tapping into all those difference senses so you when you want a burger, you find yourself in their queue ''Cheeseburger, please!''. 

You robot! 

I guess we are a little fearful of the unknown. What's happening to me? I went to the shops to buy a packet of sweets and returned with a vacuum cleaner.

What are those bookmakers are doing with all this witchcraft? 

If you open a new account, we will give you 10/1 that Chelsea beat Whatever United! I see it somewhere else 5/4. 

But what about all those subtle things. You go in the bookies and someone asks if you want a cup of tea. Milk. Sugar. (How much did that cost me?)

I studied psychology and gained a degree a number of years ago. Social psychology is intriguing because it finds ways of tapping into the human condition to get you buying. Why is one salesman so much better than the rest of the team? If you studied this person you would identify how and why.

But how does this all related to an individual like you or me making psychology work for us to be a better gambler or win more money?

The key to finding winners is , in many ways, watching, taking note, and understanding winners. For instance, one aspect which often reveals bigger odds (value) is the contrast theory. Basically, if one horse beats another, many punters, bookmakers, layers will fancy the same result if they oppose each other at a later date. I know there may be changing variables such as weight, going, distance etc. However, it has been proven that people often assess the likelihood of the previous winner as having a greater chance of victory than it does. Meaning that the favourite is often under priced whereas the beaten horse is actually value at bigger odds.

Just stop for a moment, and consider how many other aspect of psychology could be at play when you bet. 

Related postCan I Make Money Writing About My Niche Sport?

Sunday, 17 May 2020

Should I Follow the Money When Betting?

Did you see that well-backed horse - hosed up!

How many times have you seen a horse backed off the boards win? When you flick through the results they all seem to win. But is that really the case? I don't know many different areas of horse racing, but I do understand two-year-old horse racing to a very high standard. After studying this niche for over 30-years, I can speak with some authority. However, in truth, the only way to make an objective assessment is to run a statistical test on the data to see if it is significant.

Data has power and limitation. 

I have little doubt following money within two-year-old racing is worthy of note from a trainer perspective. I have run studies on all juvenile trainer debut runners and horses making their second start. A good few trainers are very consistent and this is backed up by regular profits.I don't want to detail any specific names because this information is hard to find. It is similar to following the seam of gold and hope it leads to a major find. 

What I would say, is that two-year-old horse trainers have a much better strike rate on their second start compared with debut. Hardly surprising, hey? Although a couple of trainers feature just about as good results on both starts. This proves how fit some trainers get their horses. It is important to understand the intent of owners and trainers. If they don't want to win on debut they are very unlikely to do so.  

Interestingly, the betting is very important for most horses racing on their second start. In fact, I would suggest that a small drift from one price to the next can be the difference between winning and losing. Anything can happen in racing. Even the biggest, most powerful stables, can win a 50/1. Simply because they prove a surprise package or the opposition are poor or a favourite disappoints. 

In general, the betting of most two-year-old horses is significant. Smaller trainers can get lucky and have a real star in their stable but even these are usually known as a talent before the start of the race. They are backed. 

Thursday, 7 May 2020

How Can I Make Money Gambling?

Know Your Sport

It sounds obvious but it's true. To find an edge betting you need to know your niche. It isn't about being the best gambler on earth. The key is to be better than most. It is very much the same in every field of expertise. As the saying goes: Jack of all trades and master of none. I specialise within two-year-old horse racing because there simply isn't enough time to master all other age groups. Working from your own perspective reveals many opportunities to take advantage of layers. Also, let's consider your advantage over a bookmaker - you don't have to bet on every race. That selective nature is worth its weight in gold. In addition, you don't need to bet every day. Some people don't like to let the grass grow under their feet or wallet but if you could find 20 great bets every year and make a profit plus, hopefully, lots of free time to enjoy it isn't a bad life. Time is the most precious commodity of all. Use it wisely.  

Your expertise must be skill based.   

Favourites Don't Always Win

Look through the racing results. What do you see? That the favourites don't win every race. That point in itself should bring joy to your heart and add a few zeros to your bank account. It is one reason why I would always suggest gamblers bet level stakes because it is often the case when backing an outsider people reduce their stake. These bets are often the making of a great season.    

Shop Around

The discipline of betting, its foundation knowledge, practices and philosophy are as crucial, if not more important, than the selection itself. It sounds crazy but the better you hone your skills the more you realise this point is true. Bookmakers prices vary - take the best odds, offers, opportunities. If you bet big priced selections you are wise to bet on the exchanges. When a horse is chalked up at 25/1 it is likely to be 50/1 on the machines. Double the price is the same as having your mate double your bet just for fun. Over a year, this difference can equate to a substantial amount of money. In addition, it gives you the opportunity to hedge your bet if seriously backed. Why would you keep a bet if you took 5/1 and just before the off it is 6/4?   

Be Selective

Your strength as a gambler, investor (name it what you like) is being selective. You don't need to push too hard because you will pressure yourself either with the workload or just crack under stress. Don't look for bets. The best stand out from the crowd. 

Avoid Odds On Bets

If your speciality is betting odds-on shots then you know your stuff. I wouldn't ever say this or that bet type is wrong. Why? Because just because I don't know something it doesn't mean someone else doesn't. However, if you are tempted to bet on an odds-on shot just because it is a short price, then I would suggest you count to ten. In many respects being successful betting at prohibitive odds is as difficult as betting on huge priced outsiders. All is rosy in the garden until you hit a string of losers. It may get to the point where you cannot claw those losses back and get back into the black. 
   

There Are Lots Of Markets

So you love football. Horse racing. Tennis. You only have to look at sports betting to realise there are umpteen markets you can dip your toe or become an expert. The only negative for an obscure sport is that you may not have much liquidity or bookmakers may shy away from your wagers if you prove you know more than them. I have seen a few people betting on weather, of all things, and I'm not just talking about a white Christmas. Within a given sport there are numerous division or categories. Let's say you know an individual football player better than just about anyone on earth. How can you use that information to win? I have spent a lot of time unearthing the best unraced two-year-old colts and fillies in training. Think what that information can mean when betting. I'm not saying I'm the only person who knows that information but I know a million times more than the average punter who may well be laying a horse on the exchange. My brother won £4,000 for a £20 bet when realising a small horse trainer had a wonder horse. The layers just couldn't get their heads around the fact a small trainer could have a horse that could even win let alone be such a talent it went on to run in the 1000 Guineas. 

Understand Your Markets

With experience, you will be in tune with your niche and the betting. Experience helps answer so many questions. Take your time to appreciate that to be a successful gambler (investor) it is a long road. You don't wake up one morning to find you are a professional gambler. Relish the challenge but be patient. 

Don't Bet With Your Heart

You often hear die-hard football supporters following their team and their heart by lumping on when everyone is looking on bemused. If you have to bet with your heart, bet for fun. Unless you are very disciplined don't bet for fun. Why? Because it is a slippery slope which may lead to betting without discipline. It's not a good idea. Betting with emotions is illogical. Emotions are dangerous at the best of times and mixed with gambling and too much money a distressing road to take. How many people have you seen chasing losses? How many times have you seen them win? Betting is about knowing more not shouting the loudest because you have an anger inside.   

Thursday, 16 April 2020

World Record Slots Winner Takes £13.2M

You need to be brave to fight in a war. But perhaps you need a brave, strong heart to cope with this amazing winner on the slots. 

That's what happened to 26-year-old Jon Heywood from Crew, Cheshire when he became an overnight multi-millionaire picking up £13.2M for a ridiculous 25p stake. 

Who says playing online slots doesn't pay? This Afganistan war hero couldn't believe his luck when he struck gold. 

He said: ''After a tough year seeing my grandad die, the first thing I'm going to do is buy the best possible medical treatment for my father who is waiting for a heart and lung transplant.''

He is also going to spoil himself buying a yellow Bentley Continental GT. 


He drives a Fiat Punto!


Jon continued: "I couldn't believe that I'd won all this money at the time - and it still hasn't sunk in.

"It's amazing. The first thing I will spend it on is the best possible medical treatment for my dad. "That's more important than anything. Family comes first and I'd give all this money back for him to be healthy again."

His good fortune means he's paying for his relatives to go on a Mediterranean cruise.

The win is a world record for the largest jackpot payout in an online machine game. 

Take a look at Slots Verse  - Top Slots UK. If you want to see the best of the action then fairy tale slots is a great starting place for newbies or experienced players. 

This website is great as it details the best casino offers from leading bookmakers. For example, Leo Vegas give £1500 welcome package and 120 free spins. 

If you are looking for the best free spins deal one of their operators gives up to 300. 

Want all the info? Well, you can find it easily by exploring the Top 10 Fairy Tale Slots.

As they say: ''Enter the enchanting world of princesses and princes, dragons and ogres, fairies and elves. While not what one would initially expect as an online slots theme, fairy tale inspired games to appeal to the whimsical, nostalgic side of players, taking them back to a time of castles in the sky and pots of gold at the end of the rainbow. Developers quickly picked up on the trend, realising that players yearned to be transported to a world of fantasy and away from their harsh realities, hence casinos like Mr Green offer more and more fairy tale slots. Let’s explore the top 10 fairy tale slots out there.''

Wednesday, 1 April 2020

Gambling: When the Fun Stops, Stop!


Watching TV.  One thing you may have noticed is the amount of advertising from leading bookmakers. Casino. Slots. Two flies crawling up a wall. 

Any random sporting event on TV. (What's the odds of a bookmaker ad?) 

Love a bit of darts action. But what do we see each and every advert? More reasons to gamble on just about everything! 

The problem with gambling is that it isn't, for many, as easy as saying: 'When the fun stops, STOP!'

What a ridiculous statement. Seemingly negating any responsibility for those who can't stop gambling. Addiction is clearly a problem for many people. I have never had a gambling problem simply because I am very disciplined and don't bet for fun. I would suggest that most people shouldn't be for 'pleasure'. Firstly there is nothing fun, funny, humorous about losing money. If you want to bet for any reason than making money, then play with matchsticks or casino chips you can buy without any great cost. You can learn how to bet more successfully. When you consider it takes 10,000 hours to become an expert (it takes longer) then a novice has much to learn.

Why shouldn't you bet for fun? Because it encourages people to not take their gambling/investing seriously. Money is a serious business. Gambling is even more serious because not only do you have the opportunity to make lots of money but the majority it is an opportunity to lose what they cannot afford. 

That's why I would suggest if you bet for fun then take a moment to re-assess why you are betting in the first place. 

There are lots of very naive gamblers attracted by adverts promoting 'fun'. They suck people in who simply do not have the experience or understanding to appreciate what they are dealing with. It's akin to playing with that ouija board and daring to ask the question: What date will I die?

Perhaps that question is going beyond what people ask before, during or after gambling. They could simply ask: How much will I win (positive) or how much will I lose (perhaps, realistic if you are betting for 'fun').

People need to appreciate that gambling isn't fun. To win you need to be better your opponents. You wouldn't fancy your chances racing Usain Bolt over 100m and you shouldn't fancy yourself to beat a bookmaker, layer or informed bloke in the pub if he is willing to take your bet. Unless you are very confident you will win.

In legal terms they say buyer beware. It is a good maxim for those who wish to bet. Gambler beware.

The bookmakers filter people like a sieve. 

If you win too much they will soon close your account. They need new 'clients' and as long as you lose they will allow you to bet. That's why you are best to use betting exchanges. 

I do have concerns about the impact of children watching sport and being tainted by bookmaker advertising. 'Can I bet, Dad?'

What are your thoughts on gambling advertising? 

Thursday, 27 February 2020

Professional Gambler Online Course


I have paid a good bit of money buying an online blogger course. 

To be honest, I know 99% of the curriculum so it may have not been needed. However, there is plenty of information about making an online course that is valuable and helps me along the path to creating a product gamblers will love and help make their betting pay. 

The important part of creating an online course is giving people what they want rather than me simply detailing something I think you want. 

To be fair, with over 30-years of experience within racing and betting serious amounts of money along the way, I am pretty confident I could make a course detailing what I know, how I work and all those gems of wisdom which make a vital difference to your profit and loss. 

So what would you want from a professional gambler online course? 

I know what you are itching to say: ''Winners!''

That is true and I will be detailing all the information that helps you find them. 

However, I want to help answer all those questions you want to ask or ever thought of asking. What do you find particularly difficult? Is it finding your niche? Your approach and methodology? Staking? 

I need to know your pain point(s) about every aspect so I can think about it and then say: ''I know the answer to that.'' 

If you would love to have an online course that helps you find the answer to all those questions and increase your chance of making money then I would appreciate your feedback. 

Simply email jason@professionalgamblers.co.uk with your thoughts and I will add your name to my selective list of people so you get all the latest info first and an opportunity of getting the course at a discounted price. 

To recap: ''What is the most puzzling/annoying aspect of making money gambling? 

I need your answers.


Monday, 24 February 2020

The Punter, his Betting Slip and the Chinese Burn Society

It's a funny, old world. Well, the world, itself, isn't funny in a patronising, critical, irritating kind of way that is usually left to homo sapiens. 

You probably wonder what I am talking about. 

Giving horse racing tips, selling information, it can be a pain in the arse. Why? Because you are often tarred with the same brush as those who didn't make the last person they dealt with feel so good. I am a calm, sensible, logical person who even when someone is plainly wrong I try to see the reason from their point of view. 

I know a lot about horse racing. It is my business to know. I detail some of the best two-year-old horses in training. I give 10 Dark horses. They are, in general, very good. Very, very good. But we are dealing with opinions, flesh and blood, not machines or a science set in stone. 

I felt a touch irritates by recent proceedings. The first dark horse given didn't send because of an issue with Mailchimp who forward the mailings. This horse hadn't raced before and was trained by Richard Hannon for owners Al Shaqab Racing. Its name is Denaar. It won easily, followed up next start and will be heading to Royal Ascot. By all accounts I was correct. 

The second horse I sent, which got delivered, was a horse trained by Mark Johnston called Jive Lady. The reason it was detailed was because the stable had given it a Listed race entry which suggested to me it is a talent. Remember this is the trainer's opinion. If the trainer is wrong I am wrong.

Well, it drifted markedly in the betting. It didn't fill me with confidence. The filly led and then tired quickly beaten a good number of lengths. I was disappointed. it isn't ideal especially after the first horse that didn't get mailed was so bloody good. Even a bonus horse I gave after Validator won comfortable and will no doubt be racing at group level. 

Well, I received a message from one person from over 600+ on my list to say that it was ''a load of crap''... that I was ''ripping people off''. 

Very strange. 

This is a classic case of people reacting to their emotions rather than using logic.  I've heard these things all before. I had someone say the same thing in the past who was even more up in arms about something which basically made no sense.

How can giving something for free be ripping people off? If after 10 Dark Horses people don't want to pay a measly £37.5 a year for hundreds of hours of my work then don't. It makes no difference to me if people join or not. 

The fact what I find ''illogical'' is that someone tries to judge you on one horse. Is it just me or am I missing something here? I could understand it with ten horses. The stupid fact is that I have mentioned three horses and they have achieved three wins from four races and two of the three will be racing at group class. 

Just because the Johnston horse disappointed doesn't mean it has no ability. Sometimes the best horses run terribly on debut. Time will tell. 

In truth, this message and the one received from Mr Someone wasn't actually about horse racing at all. It was about a person's distorted, if not irrational musing, which lacked reason. It lacks reason in the sense that if they had done exactly what I had and responded the way they had I'm pretty sure they would feel rather disappointed by the comments. 

One horse. How can you base some on a solitary finding? I dug one hole and didn't find any gold but the other 99 that I could have done. 

I am fair with people, generous, a hard worker who knows more about two-year-old horse racing than anyone I have met. If someone thinks they no more then come and say hello because I will know I have met another bloody hard worker. 

The day will come when I keep all of my knowledge and money to myself. 

It will be a day too, even if you don't realise, that you missed an opportunity to actually learn something valuable for free.

Now, does that sound like a wise man?