Monday, 19 August 2019

Should I Follow the Money When Betting?

Did you see that well-backed horse - hosed up!

How many times have you seen a horse backed off the boards win? When you flick through the results they all seem to win. But is that really the case? I don't know many different areas of horse racing, but I do understand two-year-old horse racing to a very high standard. After studying this niche for over 30-years, I can speak with some authority. However, in truth, the only way to make an objective assessment is to run a statistical test on the data to see if it is significant.

Data has power and limitation. 

I have little doubt following money within two-year-old racing is worthy of note from a trainer perspective. I have run studies on all juvenile trainer debut runners and horses making their second start. A good few trainers are very consistent and this is backed up by regular profits.I don't want to detail any specific names because this information is hard to find. It is similar to following the seam of gold and hope it leads to a major find. 

What I would say, is that two-year-old horse trainers have a much better strike rate on their second start compared with debut. Hardly surprising, hey? Although a couple of trainers feature just about as good results on both starts. This proves how fit some trainers get their horses. It is important to understand the intent of owners and trainers. If they don't want to win on debut they are very unlikely to do so.  

Interestingly, the betting is very important for most horses racing on their second start. In fact, I would suggest that a small drift from one price to the next can be the difference between winning and losing. Anything can happen in racing. Even the biggest, most powerful stables, can win a 50/1. Simply because they prove a surprise package or the opposition are poor or a favourite disappoints. 

In general, the betting of most two-year-old horses is significant. Smaller trainers can get lucky and have a real star in their stable but even these are usually known as a talent before the start of the race. They are backed. 

Tuesday, 13 August 2019

The Perception of the Gamble

Life's a gamble. 

That's what they say.

When people say they don't gamble, what do you think? Wise, stupid, intelligent, absurd? 

I guess when people say they don't gamble they simply mean they don't gamble with a regular bet on the horses, dogs, the proverbial two flies crawling up a wall.

I wonder how many of those people bet on the lottery?  



January 6th, 1996 saw the very first double rollover in the United Kingdom, prompting a staggering 86% of the population of Britain to dash out to buy a ticket!


Strangely, the majority of those people don't gamble. Or they would tell you they don't gamble. 

Well, they certainly did that week. 

The everyday gambler is seen as a mug punter. But as with every aspect of life, we go from the novice to the expert. The main difference between the two is that the expert has worked hard to understand their subject matter. They are wise, efficient and studious. That still doesn't guarantee they will be a winner or make money on their investments. 

Consider how differently you may view these professions: stockbroker, a professional gambler.  

The old stereotypes hit your synapses like a lorry smashing into a wall. 

Well, one is kind of a posh professional, while the other wears a dodgy mac, has a roll up hanging from his mouth and shifty looking. Is that a bundle of notes in his pocket or a gun or a sudden attack of arousal?

I guess you get a few stockbrokers who look the same but both are rather peculiar perceptions. Walter Lippman coined the phrase stereotype a fascinating, intelligent and noted Pulitzer Prize winner 1958, 1962. 


Roll a dice - one or six. What odds would tempt you to bet?


You know there is a price at which only a fool would turn down a gamble. Surely you are not one of those fools?

An example of stereotypes: if I said I knew a French professional gambler you may see an imagine of him riding a cycle, wearing a beret and a string of onions hanging around his neck. 

But that is the thing about the mysterious, illicit, looked-down upon everyday gambler. Look at that idiot, he thinks he can beat the bookmakers. 

Well, I'm here to tell you that's exactly what many gamblers do on a regular basis. The perception is that a bookmaker will always triumph over a gambler. He's the vampire bat sucking the blood out of a nieve punter who doesn't even realise its latched on the back of his neck.

It is difficult to draw the line between where a gamble starts and finished. You are not probably conscious of the gambles you are taking on a daily basis. Perhaps you are. Lucky you...





When crossing the road, few people are stupid enough to walk across without taking a glance left and right. If you are super cautious you may even look in the air for falling pianos and the like.The odds of getting knocked down on the road are real. They don't simply disappear because you haven't given them the time of day. Insurance companies could tell you the odds and they would rob you blind if you asked for a bet on that poor old dear who isn't as nimble as she once was on her feet.

Wouldn't you rather be conscious of the gamble? You may be able to negate those odds, increase your chance of winning or even life a little longer than you thought.

Sunday, 11 August 2019

Man Eats Cheeseburger to Win $10,000 Bet

Man Eats Cheeseburger to Win $10,000 BetThere are some amazing sport betting stories. 

The type of story where some bloke goes to the races with a few pounds in his pocket and comes back a millionaire. Sure we know that isn't the scenario for your average Joe Bloggs. In fact, it's odds-on that more punters have lost millions than won. However, isn't that the thrill of the gamble? There's always someone who knows a friend of a friend who has the Midas touch. Some people make a fortune without even placing a bet. Read more...

Take a look at this great website for all your Sports promo codes and enjoy these stories to see which punters tick your box. 

The Lucky Punter Wins £44,000 with £10 Bet

Stephen Kelly shouted: 


''Yeeeeeeeeeees!''

as the final leg of his astounding golf bet came in. The Aberdeenshire man's double added to the sum of 4363/1. 

The 30-year-old, now living in London, placed the wager online with Bet365. 


Picking (Up) Winners Without Placing a Bet

This gambler was flat broke but that didn't stop Jesus Leonardo from winning bundles of cash. Better still, he didn't even need cash. How come? Well, this canny soul makes a living from searching the rubbish bins at betting parlours in search of winning betting tickets thrown away by mistake. Jesus realised the worth of checking old betting slips after losing a winning ticket worth $900. So desperate was he to locate his ticket that the manageress said he could take home bags of ''losing'' betting tickets home in the vain hope of finding his wonga. 

In a bizarre twist of fate, he didn't find his ticket but two other winners worth $2,000. 


It was the start of a new career earning more than $45,000 a year. 

When you consider uncashed winning tickets in New York totalled more than $4.2 million a year there's plenty enough money to go round if you can find those elusive winning (lost tickets). 

I Bet you Can't Eat this Cheeseburger for $10,000

Heavy weight pro poker player Howard Lederer was told to lose some pound by his doctor and took the advised by losing almost 80lbs. With poker earnings of almost $6M, there was only one thing he loved more than gambling and that was food. However, even a strict diet couldn't stop him from taking advantage of a stupid bet made by his good friend David Grey.


He bet $10,000 that he couldn't demolish [eat] a big cheeseburger.  

Lederer finished the meal and pocketed an easy $10,000.   

Tuesday, 23 July 2019

Bet365 Close £1m Winning Account

Carry on at Your Convenience (1971)
Bookmakers: Love or hate them? I guess your attitude towards them is dependent on your gambling success. Although, if you win too much they are likely to close your account so you may be frustrated by knowing you can win but can't get your bet on. 

As in the classic film Carry On at Your Convenience (1971). The scene where Joey the budgie astounds Sid Plummer (Sidney James) with a string of winning tips. After years of losing, the hapless Mr Plummer simply couldn't lose. All was good until after taking his local bookmaker to the cleaners once too often his account was: CLOSED!!!!

Listen to Joey the budgie pick winning tips. 

A riveting conversation ensued where bettor and layer reasoned the trials and tribulations of gambling, winning and losing.  

Sid Plummer: ''What kind of sportsman doesn't take a bet?'' 

The bookmaker replies:  


''If I was a sportsman, I'd be riding the horse!''

Well, you may think betting with your bookmaker is as simple as winning or losing. So, if you win, you just go and collect your money. If they close your account you can merrily stick up two fingers (or one for the budgie to perch) and say F*** You. 

It sounds good in theory. However, an Irish student from Belfast found out to her displeasure that if you win it might not be quite as simple as you thought. 

You may find that not only is your account suspended but closed

In fact, you may find that not only have your winning vanished but your stake has mysteriously vanished into the bookmaker's satchel and the only way you are going to get your stake or winnings back is by taking them to court. 

That's what happened in a recent bet placed with Bet365. The Telegraph has an exclusive story which details why you don't want to be betting for a third party or give the impression you have. 

Read: Teenager takes Bet365 to court over £1m 'won' on horse races
  

  

Tuesday, 16 July 2019

20-Year Wait to win $2.4 Million on the Slots

Whether you go to Las Vegas or play online slots we all love to hear about those big winners. 

You may wish to go to The Strip but these days gamblers love to sit at home and play the slots for fun and who knows they may even strike it rich. I know you love the film Dirty Dancing but did you know one well-known bookmaker has a slot machine based on this popular theme called Dirty Dancing at bet365.  

Fingers crossed you get lucky. Here's an interesting question. How long do you have to wait for a slot machine to payout its big prize? Well, it varies from one slot to the next. Las Vegas. You may have heard of Lion's Share slot machine which resides on the ground floor of the MGM Grand. 

It's one of 50 machines installed in the early 1990s. In fact, this one-armed bandit is so popular it has people lining up for hours to play. 

The incredible part of the story is that for 20 years this slot machine hadn't paid its top prize. 

That was until Walter and Misco of New Hampshire, USA, thought they would change their luck one Friday evening.  


After 5 minutes and $3 Dollars, they won $2.4 MILLION

Sometimes you just need a bit of luck to win big. 



The Lion's Share slot machine had a reputation for being stubborn. I mean, how long do you have to wait for something to give? 

Twenty years to pay the jackpot. Perhaps there was a little bit of lady luck involved in this substantial win as it was his wife, Misco, who suggested they play. 

So we have seen a big winner. But what about a big-time loser. 

The woman who was offered a steak dinner instead of $43 MILLION Jackpot!

Seems too strange to be true. Katrina Bookman thought she had won big but casino bosses claimed the machine had a malfunction. Unsurprisingly, she declined the free steak meal and sued.  

The case continues. 

5 Ways to Hit the Jackpot

Need a touch of inspiration? From winning the jackpot to being offered a steak for a malfunction. I think I need a drink with both. But let's take a look at one expert's opinion on how to win on the slots.

1 Give it time. Playing on the slots online. If you see an announcement of a big win wait a while because it's unlikely you are going to win soon after. 

2 All machines work on a cycle - they have to pay at some time. They often pay out in a short period of time so if you get that elusive win there may well be more to come. 

3 Play the slot games that are most popular and getting a lot of attention to punters. 

4 Don't play a game too long. 

5 Play the high limit slot machines They cost more but they pay out more. 

Tuesday, 9 July 2019

Pie-eating Goalkeeper Investigated by Gambling Commision

pie eating goalkeeper
Old story revisited...

The Gambling Commission are to investigate the pie-eating stunt of Sutton United goalkeeper, Wayne Shaw, during their FA Cup defeat by Arsenal on Monday night.
The reserve goalkeeper was spotted in the club bar at half-time among the fans, before returning to the dug-out  - with his infamous pie, flavour unknown - for the second half as 12-time FA Cup winners, Arsenal eased to a 2-0 victory.
Shaw was seen by BBC cameras tucking into a sumptuous pie in the dug-out before the final whistle.
Shaw confirmed that he had been informed about a bet surrounding himself eating a ''chicken'' pie live on television, Sun Bet offered and publicised a pie-eating stunt bet. They, coincidentally, became Sutton’s official shirt sponsor in a one-off deal. 
Sun Bet is being investigated and could face action after they paid out a five-figure sum to gamblers who backed an 8-1 offer that Shaw would be seen live on camera eating a pie during the match.
The Gambling Commission enforcement and intelligence director Richard Watson said: “Integrity in sport is not a joke and we have opened an investigation to establish exactly what happened.
“As part of that we'll be looking into any irregularity in the betting market and establishing whether the operator has met its licence requirement to conduct its business with integrity.”
The FA are also believed to be considering disciplinary action. 
Shaw said after the match: “A few of the lads said to me earlier on what is going on with the 8-1 [bet] about eating a pie. I said I don't know, I have eaten nothing all day. So I might give it a go later on.
“As I say what is that, Sun Bet had us at 8-1 to eat a pie. I thought I would give them a bit of banter and do it. All the subs were on and we were 2-0 down.


“I went and got it at half time from the kitchen, I had it all prepared and ready to go. It was meat and potato.”
Asked if anyone he knew backed the offer, Shaw answered: “I think there were a few people. Obviously, we are not allowed to bet. I think a few of the mates and a few of the fans. It was just a bit of banter for them. It is something to make the occasion as well and you can look back and say it was part of it and we got our ticket money back.”
Banter it may be - a hot pie may well get some people in hot water.

Monday, 17 June 2019

The Punter, his Betting Slip and the Chinese Burn Society

It's a funny, old world. Well, the world, itself, isn't funny in a patronising, critical, irritating kind of way that is usually left to homo sapiens. 

You probably wonder what I am talking about. 

Giving horse racing tips, selling information, it can be a pain in the arse. Why? Because you are often tarred with the same brush as those who didn't make the last person they dealt with feel so good. I am a calm, sensible, logical person who even when someone is plainly wrong I try to see the reason from their point of view. 

I know a lot about horse racing. It is my business to know. I detail some of the best two-year-old horses in training. I give 10 Dark horses. They are, in general, very good. Very, very good. But we are dealing with opinions, flesh and blood, not machines or a science set in stone. 

I felt a touch irritates by recent proceedings. The first dark horse given didn't send because of an issue with Mailchimp who forward the mailings. This horse hadn't raced before and was trained by Richard Hannon for owners Al Shaqab Racing. Its name is Denaar. It won easily, followed up next start and will be heading to Royal Ascot. By all accounts I was correct. 

The second horse I sent, which got delivered, was a horse trained by Mark Johnston called Jive Lady. The reason it was detailed was because the stable had given it a Listed race entry which suggested to me it is a talent. Remember this is the trainer's opinion. If the trainer is wrong I am wrong.

Well, it drifted markedly in the betting. It didn't fill me with confidence. The filly led and then tired quickly beaten a good number of lengths. I was disappointed. it isn't ideal especially after the first horse that didn't get mailed was so bloody good. Even a bonus horse I gave after Validator won comfortable and will no doubt be racing at group level. 

Well, I received a message from one person from over 600+ on my list to say that it was ''a load of crap''... that I was ''ripping people off''. 

Very strange. 

This is a classic case of people reacting to their emotions rather than using logic.  I've heard these things all before. I had someone say the same thing in the past who was even more up in arms about something which basically made no sense.

How can giving something for free be ripping people off? If after 10 Dark Horses people don't want to pay a measly £37.5 a year for hundreds of hours of my work then don't. It makes no difference to me if people join or not. 

The fact what I find ''illogical'' is that someone tries to judge you on one horse. Is it just me or am I missing something here? I could understand it with ten horses. The stupid fact is that I have mentioned three horses and they have achieved three wins from four races and two of the three will be racing at group class. 

Just because the Johnston horse disappointed doesn't mean it has no ability. Sometimes the best horses run terribly on debut. Time will tell. 

In truth, this message and the one received from Mr Someone wasn't actually about horse racing at all. It was about a person's distorted, if not irrational musing, which lacked reason. It lacks reason in the sense that if they had done exactly what I had and responded the way they had I'm pretty sure they would feel rather disappointed by the comments. 

One horse. How can you base some on a solitary finding? I dug one hole and didn't find any gold but the other 99 that I could have done. 

I am fair with people, generous, a hard worker who knows more about two-year-old horse racing than anyone I have met. If someone thinks they no more then come and say hello because I will know I have met another bloody hard worker. 

The day will come when I keep all of my knowledge and money to myself. 

It will be a day too, even if you don't realise, that you missed an opportunity to actually learn something valuable for free.

Now, does that sound like a wise man?