Sunday 23 October 2016

Kind draw means red hot Bautista-Agut is cracking each-way value @ 12/1 with BetVictor as an alternative to odds on Murray in Vienna

A feast of tennis to look forward to this week so will crack on and hopefully pick out some nice priced winners.

ATP Vienna

Upgraded to a 500 point ranking event and can be enjoyed live on Sky Sports this week, top seed Andy Murray continues his quest for the number one spot in the world rankings as he chases down an ailing Novak Djokovic.

Murray a winner here in 2014 looks hard to oppose on current form coming here fresh and with the motivation he has currently.

The 4/6 offers little appeal for the majority of punters so at first glance it is easy to just switch events and look for value in Basel.

However, the draw is favourable for the bang in-form Spaniard, Roberta Bautista-Agut who reached his maiden Masters 1000 final in Shanghai three weeks back and followed this up with a solid run to the St Petersburg semi-final. I feel that when Baitista-Agut is in the form he is right now he is worth siding with, as he usually holds his form well for a period of time and this week, indoors in Vienna he could go deep into the tournament.

First up is home favourite Jurgen Melzer who is ready to hang up his racquet and retire, followed by a meeting with either Sunday's beaten finalist in Moscow the temperamental Italian Fabio Fognini who will surely be disinterested on the back of his efforts last week coupled with the disappointment with the added fatigue factor thrown into the mix RBA would have little resistance there, or Alberto Ramos-Vinolas who is in decent form however not playing at the same level of our selection Bautista-Agut right now.

A quarter-final potential opponent could be 6th seed Jo-Wilfred Tsonga who is 10/1 second favourite however the Frenchman again did not look fit in Shanghai and has been plagued by injury since the US Open so is happily opposed against a player such as RBA who will make him run and play that extra shot on every available point.

The danger in this bottom half away from Murray's top half draw is 2nd seed and 11/1 shot Tomas Berdych of the Czech Republic.

The Berd man has a few shoot out scenarios against some big servers in his path to a potential semi-final clash with Bautista-Agut however if coming through this Berdych who defended his title in Shenzhen last month would be the toughest opponent standing in our selections way.

Berdych away from his favourite and most successful tournament of the season in Shenzhen has done little of note and looked on the decline during 2016 from his usual consistent self of the past decade, so preference is for the red hot Bautista-Agut where at 12/1 would return a 6/1 winner should he again be thwarted by Murray in a final with the bonus of the 12s plus 6s should he win the title and Murray flop to a Klizan, Simon, or Pouille who can all trouble and play lights out tennis on their day and beat anyone in the World.

ATP Basel

The Swiss indoors tournament has been dominated by 6 x winner Roger Federer who sadly is unable to defend his title due to an injury that has ruled him out for the season so it is over to fellow Swiss star and top seed Stan Wawrinka the 3/1 favourite to fly the flag for the home faithful at this lucrative 500 points ranking event.

Playing in his home country hasn't been a happy hunting ground for Stan the Man throughout his career, however, this week looks a great opportunity to follow on from Federer's successes. A draw that should motivate Stan where his route to the semi-finals looks easy enough with 7th seed Richard Gasquet the first big named opponent at the quarter-final stages although this could look even better due to Gasquets Antwerp title today meaning fatigue is a cert for an already fragile French body.

Marin Cilic the 4th seed has seen support in the markets cut from 9/1 into 15/2 however I would favour Stan should they meet on current form. The bottom half has so many uncertainties with Milos Raonic's and Kei Nishikori's fitness levels both complete guess work to part with any hard earned cash on.

The pair has retired from recent events and only one can progress to meet Stan in a final should they both fancy it this week.

It has to be noted wild card Juan Martin DelPotro the winner of this event in 2013 and 2012 is at 6/1 and must be respected however a title win in Stockholm would hardly be the best preparation this week and to win 10 games in 2 weeks seems highly unlikely for a player still on the com back trail from long-term wrist injury despite being a box office performer.
So it's the US Open Champion Stan Wawrinka who is taken at 3/1 with Paddy Power, SkyBet and Betvictor to lift the Swiss Indoors title this week.

WTA World Tour Finals

Already underway we have seen wins for 2014 runner-up Simona Halep and World number one Angelique Kerber in the red group however my main fancy in the betting comes from the White Group getting underway on Monday from 11.30am at this round robin stage.
Defending Champion Agineszka Radwanska has a very favourable group housed with the low on confidence French Open Champion Garbine Muguruza who has been in dreadful form since May and rolled her ankle which swelled up into a giant golf ball by the time she called it a day during her quarter-finals match in Linz less than two weeks ago.

Karolina Pliskova is the only danger in this 4 player group mainly due to the staying power the recent US Open Champion has for competing at a high level right until the end of a season. The unexpected Grand Slam title has effected her form and has been a welcome distraction to the bread and butter of the WTA campaign so preference is for the bang in-form Polish performer Radwaska who won the Beijing title a few weeks back and is also highly motivated until after this tournament and season is complete.

Svetlana Kuznetsova is the other player in this section however the 29 year old who has had a very pleasing and successful campaign, a first for a long time that has been injury free but will surely have little in the tank having won the title to secure her berth In Singapore on Saturday in Moscow and has had a very active Asia swing, reaching latter stages to ensure she was in the mix for the final slot to make this end of season finale.

Radwanska is taken at 6/4 to win the White group and also at 4/1 with Stan James to defend her title where it is noted she is 7/2 general an acceptable price over main rivals from the white group and 11/4 joint-favourites for the title Kerber and Halep.


ATP Vienna - Roberto Bautista-Agut to win Outright Each-Way @ 12/1 Betvictor or 11/1 General. (EachWay terms 1/2 Odds 1-2 finish).

ATP Basel - Stan Wawrinka to win Outright @ 3/1 Paddy Power, SkyBet & Betway.

WTA World Tour Finals

Agineszka Radwanska to win White Group @ 6/4 Bet365, Coral, & Betway.

Agineszka Radwanska to win Outright @ 4/1 StanJames or 7/2 General.

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