Monday 8 August 2016

Rio Olympics 2016 Men’s Competition & John Deere Classic (PGA Tour)

Hi All, 

Last Week’s Outlay 25 pts Last Week’s Return 17 pts (- 8pts) Year To Date + 436.25

A quiet week last week as the golfing world settles down after all the major championships are complete, and before the lucrative FedEx Cup playoffs begin. We were still able to pick up a 3rd place finish on Champions Tour at odds of 30/1 to tide us over a little before the better events pick up again.

This week sees the playing of golf in the Olympics for the first time in 112 years, which will be fun to watch and also one of the more impressive PGA Tour venues of the year in the form of the TPC Deere Run. There are a few big price selections this week, so be sure to have a read through the below:

Rio Olympics 2016, Men’s Competition – 10 pts Outlay 

Olympics Golf Course, Barra da Tijuca, 7,128 yards, par 71 – Thursday August 11th to Sunday August 14th Built on a former sand quarry along saltwater marshes and lagoons, designer Gil Hanse and consultant Amy Alcott faced the challenge of creating an Olympic test that the public can play once the Games are concluded. With just a thin barrier of dunes protecting the course from the Atlantic Ocean, inspiration was drawn from the classic Sandbelt courses

 of Australia. Greens are slanted, with several hole locations demanding precise tee shots to set up an unobstructed approach. Officials have decided to forego rough for the tournament, leaving wide fairways with the hope that wind will be a primary defence. If not, many of the world’s best will be encouraged to go flag hunting. 

The Open Championship winner, Henrik Stenson, and Masters winner Danny Willett, give golf’s return to the Olympic program two of the four reigning major winners. In all, the event will feature six of the top 12 men in the Official World Golf Ranking. The field was limited to just 60 players, with qualification based on world rankings and caps on the number of entrants from any one nation. Countries were limited to two entrants, with up to two more if additional players were among the top 15 in the ranking.

The United States has the maximum of four entrants – Bubba Watson, Rickie Fowler, Patrick Reed and Matt Kuchar, and as I tweeted it would be difficult to see the gold medal anywhere other than around team USA neck, for from a punting perspective there is better value to be had, and we will hope to capitalise on USAs short odds . Justin Rose will join Willett to comprise Great Britain’s twosome; Spain is represented by Sergio Garcia and Rafa Cabrera Bello. Adilson da Silva, who plays mostly on the Asian and Sunshine tours, is host Brazil’s lone entrant, and it will be a huge honour for him to hit the opening shot. 

NOTE: Please do be careful and aware of who you are betting with for the golf in the Olympics, amazingly a lot of the higer profile companies are only offering place term for the medal places (top 3), however Bet365 & SkyBet are still offering ¼ odds on the top 5!

NAP – EMILIANO GRILLO 25/1 (SkyBet & Bet365) 2.5 pts EW 

Ranked number 37 in the world, and currently sitting in 27th spot it has been a good 2016 season for Grillo, which included a win earlier in the season at the open. On top of this win there has also been another three top 10 finishes, and eleven top 25s, this consistency is further evidence when you see that he has successfully made the cut in 24 of his 28 starts since the beginning of the season. I believe Grillo is set for big things, and at just 23 years old he is sure to have the best years ahead of him, an Olympic golf medal will only help in accelerating this potential. Coming from Argentina, the South American climate and playing conditions will prove no problem, and it is the fact he is ranked 2nd on tour in total driving that impresses me most, and at odds of 25/1 we should get a good run for our investment.

NB – SCOTT HEND 80/1 (SkyBet & Bet365) 1.5 pts EW 

At the age of 42, Scott could have been forgiven for resting on his laurels and enjoying the winter years of his career; however this could not of been further from reality, with the 2016 yielding his most successful set of results. And interestingly, having spend large portions of his professional career competing on the Asian Tour, it is his performances outside of Europe that are of interest, with a win in Thailand and two top 10 finishes in China to his name this year Scott sits 24th in the Race To Dubai. His length of the tee is always of use, but his silky touch around the greens is often overlooked. As you will see shortly with my final selection, there is a slight Australian theme with my selections, and with a proud sporting nation of athletes around him in the Olympic village Scott will receive any last motivation needed to success and represent his country admirably.

IWAC – MARCUS FRASER 150/1 (SkyBet & Bet365) 1 pt EW  HANG ON, PLEASE!!!!!!

The second Australian of my selections, Marcus arrives in 34th place in the Race To Dubai, and with a win to his name at Malaysia in February. When you spend a few moments to look over Marcus’s statistics of recent years, you can see that he is hitting the ball both further and straighter than he ever has since European Tour records began. As the odds clearly suggest, this is a bit of an outside punt, but I believe Marcus is more than capable of outplaying his odds and perform respectively for Australia.

John Deere Classic (PGA Tour) – 10 pts Outlay

TPC Deere Run, 7,257 yards, par 71 – Thursday August 11th to Sunday August 14th 

Constructed on the site of a long-ago tribal village that later housed an Arabian horsebreeding operation, D.A. Weibring’s 1999 design offers breathtaking views in the rolling woodlands alongside the Rock River. Dramatic elevation changes frame several holes, notably the downhill 14th that measures 358 yards but can be set up as a drivable par-4.

Typically a place that yields low scores, Deere Run carved its place in the record book six years ago when Paul Goydos carded just the fourth 59 recorded on the PGA Tour; eventual winner Steve Stricker shot 60 that day, with this type of history at the event it was important to look at the total amount of birdies made stats and lowest rounds, to ensure selections are going to be capable of keeping up in the scoring stakes this week. 

Iowa native and 2012 winner Zach Johnson headlines the roster, and is sure to go very close again this week, as well as winning back in 2012, Zach has also lost in a playoff since then too, but at best odds of around a stingy 7/1 there is no value here whatsoever, and with the greatest of respect there is no way Zach Johnson has ever or will ever be good value at just 7/1 at any event. Joined by three-time John Deere champion Steve Stricker, who I apply the same rational to that of Zach, having practically run the show here at TPC Deere Run for over a decade, Steve does arrive in good solid for again this year, but as a 12/1 shot, and potentially rightly so short here, there are still better bets to be had this week. I am pretty sure I am in with a good chance of looking daft, as I’m sure both of them will go close, but at odds of 7/1 and 12/1 respectively these are just bullets we will hopefully be lucky enough in dodging.

With 2015 champ Jordan Spieth not in the field, and more than a dozen other top names playing in golf’s first Olympic tournament since 1904, Kevin Na (No. 32) is next highest in the world rankings behind Johnson. NAP Jon Rahm, with special temporary status after a pair of top-3 finishes since turning pro, heads a new-pro brigade that includes NCAA champion Aaron Wise, Lee McCoy, Charlie Danielson, Jordan Niebrugge and Robby Shelton. 

NOTE: PaddyPower are offering top 7 places for this event, and StanJames are offering ¼ odds on the top 6 places. As mentioned above also, do your homework on where best to place, to ensure you get the best end of the deal. My post will only signpost towards the best (highest) available odds on the market available at the time of posting. 

NAP – JON RAHM 14/1 (Bet365) 2.5 pts EW 

As touched upon above, Jon is plying his trade under a special temporary status at the moment, but his using this to great effect at the moment and is well on his way to successfully securing his full exemption for next year. A 3rd place finish in June at the Quicken Loans, a 2nd place finsh last month in the Canadian Open and three rounds in the 60s at last weeks Travelers Championship, Jon has certainly hit the ground running, and it is surely only a matter of time before he adds his first PGA Tour win. 

NB – DANIEL SUMMERHAYS 22/1 (PaddyPower) 1.5 pts

EW A little bit of a hores for courses situation here, with Daniel’s last three results here reading tied 8th, tied 13th and tied 4th. But one positive difference coming in to this years event is the significant current form Daniel is showing, with the highlight being an outright 3rd place finish in the USPGA championship only a few weeks ago. Two other top 10 finshes and a further eleven top 25 finishes in the 2016 season see Daniel sitting in a lofty 53rd place in the offcial world golf rankings and 35th in the FedEx cup. 

IWAC – JAMIE LOVEMARK 100/1 (Bet365 & SkyBet) 1 pt EW 

A 6th place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a 2nd place finish in the Classic of New Orleans are far and away the two highlight of what has been an rollercoaster of a 2016 season for Jamie. I think this type of event and the slightly easier than normal playing conditions could see a return to form for Jamie. Sitting inside the top 25 for birdie average per round is one of the reasons I am happy taking the punt on a relative outsider this week, add this to another impressive stat that Jamie has gained over 5.1 shots on the rest of the PGA Tour so far this season in putting, could mean that he outplays his high odds.

*MULTIPLE* – Emiliano Grillo (Rio Olympics) & Jon Rahm (John Deere Classic) - 390/1 (Bet365) 1 pt Each Way Double 

This Week’s Outlay – 22 pts Have a nice week, and good luck if following,



No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.