Monday's Racing Tips (3rd July)

Monday's Racing Tips
4:45 Wolverhampton - 

Ed Dunlop doesn't overrate his juveniles but the stable is keen on Global Humor. They expected to win on debut but he bumped into a couple of talents. A step up in distance to 7f looks mores suiting. With a couple of winners in opposition, this will not be a walkover but he should take the beating. In an ideal world, this two-year-old would be an each-way price but that look impossible. I would want bigger than 6/4 to be betting. Interesting. 

6:00 Windsor - 

An intriguing puzzle. Dusty, trained by Mick Channon, received a Royal Ascot entry but then made her debut at Lingfield. She was a huge price that day which suggests little was expected. In truth, this daughter of Paco Boy didn't achieve a great deal. I thought she was given the Ascot entry on a whim so it was a surprise to see she has been given a Listed entry. The mystery deepens. A wide draw looks hard work at Windsor unless they stay on the far rail which is unlikely with the ground drying. She is priced 20/1 for this race. I wouldn't worry about the price because Channon can win a big odds second start. I would imagine if the stable feel this chestnut filly has any major hope she will be backed. It is intriguing to consider. However, if this April foal has ability she will show it today. I would feel more optimistic if better drawn. A 16 birth is hellishly difficult to negate unless staying on the far rail but that looks very unlikely. If drifting to incredible prices on the exchanges I may have a small speculative each-way bet but we have many ifs and buts floating around. 

6:45 Hamilton - 

Palmer has been knocking on the door. This tiny son of Acclamation is battling type who has been denied a win simply because he has been against strong opponents. He will probably enjoy this going. There is always a worry that he may regress because he has been given a few hard races and they can sour a juvenile in a race if they decide enough is enough. A form horse with some ability is Ventura Gold. He needs in excess of 5f but this stiff course and softer going may see him to better advantage. I would still have concerns he will be outpaced in the early stage so if betting you would be wise to bet in-running on the exchanges because you will secure greater odds. There is a concern he may be running over this trip to look disappointing with regard to a handicap rating. This could be a distinct possibility. I have little doubt this horse will be better over a stiffer trip and if disappointing today will be a very good bet if given a lowly official rating. 

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