Friday's Racing Tips

3:00 Doncaster - 

This looks a competitive heat. 

George Margarson hasn't seen the greatest of seasons with his juvenile string. Like most stables, a lack of ammunition doesn't help when trying to find a winner. Heavenly Guest is one of the better two-year-olds in the stable although that has to be kept in perspective because very few have figured. This son of Havana Gold ran respectably on debut at Windsor when fourth in a fair race. This January foal is likely to improve for this step up in distance. At odds of 22/1, there may be a chance of hitting the frame.

I attended Great Yarmouth when Amplification made his debut. A handsome son of Lonhro in the ownership of S F Hui. This bay colt was a handful in the paddock and quite noisy. For one of Ed Dunlop's debutantes, he was quite fancied in the betting and ran very well finishing third after travelling with verve. He looks the type to improve from that first start and it will take a fair juvenile to lower his colours today. 

Andrew Balding is a trainer to respect with two-year-olds making their second start. Consultant made his racecourse bow at Salisbury. This course is often targetted by Kingsclere for their better talents. This son of Kodiac was relatively fancied that day starting at odds of 5/1 although a little ring rusty, running on at the line to finish a fourth of seven. Racing in the silks of Highclere Thoroughbred Racing-Ennis Hill, this gelding cost 140,000G when purchased at the yearling sales. It could be the case, the heavy going wasn't quite to his liking on debut. However, his juveniles often make a marked improvement from first to the second start. I'd expect this horse to go well and hold each-way claims. If drifting to 8/1 - 9/1 could be a value bet. 

Epic Fantasy wasn't given much hope by bookmakers when making his debut at odds of 50/1. However, this Irish-bred son of Invincible Spirit was far from disgraced when third, beaten a good few lengths, behind Emaraaty who proved a disappointment when down the field in the Darley Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1). Charlie Hills' colt will progress from that first start. From a betting perspective, this horse holds fair each-way claims if priced 13/2 & less SP. 

Harry Callaghan finished behind Epic Fantasy and needs to find a few lengths improvement to turn the tables. 

Another horse making its second start is Marco Botti's Elusif. This son of Elusive Quality hasn't been seen since early September. Racing in the familiar silks of Mrs Yvonne Jacques, this homebred was relatively fancied on debut when contesting an EBF Novice Stakes at Ascot. He finished a creditable fourth, behind a few talents. The third horse that day, Danceteria, is no world beater but held in pretty high regard by the stable. Botti's juveniles are progressive and should go well. An absence of nearly 50 days is a slight concern.

Spring Praise looks to be the second string for the stable at 50/1.   

Moxy Mares ran well on debut when hitting the frame at huge odds. Daniel Mark Loughnane's charge was fancied to go well when making his return at Wolverhampton but didn't show a great deal after a slow start and pressed from some way out. This chestnut son of Motivator hasn't been seen for almost two months suggesting there may have been an issue that day. 

Conclusion: An intriguing race. The betting tells he competitive nature of this race. I would wait for the market to settle in the hope it weeds out one or two weak links. From a basic betting perspective, Amplification, Elusif, Epic Fantasy & Consultant hold fair each-way claims. This doesn't help too much with assessment unless one or two drift markedly in the betting. Amplification ran well on debut and should improve for that first start. The form of that debut it still untested which may be reason enough not to want to take too short odds. Consultant needs to improve. However, I often bet Balding's juveniles on their second start because they tend to be progressive types. It is a positive this colt was fancied in the betting on debut. If drifting a touch in the market, he could prove to be a fair each-way bet. Elusif makes some appeal. Marco Botti isn't the type of trainer to send a horse to Ascot on debut and he ran well. Another to hold respectable win and place claims.Heavenly Guest will appreciate this step up in distance and may have place claims at big odds if you like a speculative punt. On balance, I would take a watching brief. 

2:30 Doncaster Racing Tips (18th June) Project Polar EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 5) (2yo)

A Fillies Novice Stakes over 7f 6y on good to firm going. 

Ten two-year-olds take part: five with race experience and an equal measure of debutantes who predominantly head the market. 

Charlie Appleby is all smiles this season while Saeed bin Suroor shifts his way through the chaff. 


Arabian Gift is a brown filly sired by Dubawi out of a debut-winning mare who was limited but liked a trip. This filly cost 525,000G at the yearling sales. She has been detailed on the informative website Group Horse being worthy of note. Appleby has excelled with debutantes this season. They are difficult to oppose although punters always risk getting their fingers burnt if a lesser light hits the course in this purple patch. She holds a Moyglare entry which adds to confidence. 

If the betting is correct, Godolphin's starlet has four major opponents.

Mark Johnston fields One Second. Could that be an indicator of exceptional speed? This bay filly is sired by Intello [German stallion]  out of a limited but winning mare. This January foal races in the familiar silks of Abdulla Al Mansoori. She cost 42,000G from Genesis Green Stud, purchased by the trainer. Johnston hasn't seen the success of previous years with this crop of two-year-olds. However, he is a capable handler who can ready a debutante. He can be tricky to assess with horses making their racecourse bow. I'm often quoted as saying: ''They are either easy winners or poor losers.'' I would take a watching brief. 

Jeremy Noseda hasn't hit the ground running this season. A couple of two-year-olds ran creditably without tasting victory. Quivery is owned by Marc Keller. This American-bred daughter of Violence cost $360,000 when purchased at two [14th March]. She holds a Moyglare Stakes Group 1 entry. Interesting to see Jame Spencer booked to ride, which adds to confidence. The stable can go well with their debutantes, especially when priced 8/1 & less SP. This April foal could go well.  

Few trainers can hold a candle to Richard Fahey. His performance with debutantes is exceptional. Compared even to the most successful handlers, they pale into insignificance. His first and second-time strike rate stride rate for fancied two-year-old runners is very similar. It's a stat you do not hear any pundits mention. However, it is a truly astounding factor. What it means is that his debutantes are generally trained to the minute and experienced. Paramount Love ran well on her first start at Doncaster when finishing a creditable third behind the Royal Ascot-bound Natural. This daughter of Pivotal wasn't fancied in the betting that day at odds of 16/1. She was held up but ran on with promise some way clear of the fourth. That experience will see her well today and this extra half furlong is to her benefit. 

The next best in the betting is Richard Hannon's newcomer Tig Tog, who races in the familiar silks of Sullivan Bloodstock Ltd. This March foal is a daughter of Dark Angel and 90,000G yearling purchase. The betting is the best guide. She is presently priced 9/1 with bookmakers. If she is capable of winning today I would expect her to start at shorter odds. 

The only other debutante is David Brown's Headware, who is owned by John Fretwell. This combination has found a few talented horses over the years but this season has been rather uneventful. Hard Graft proved a disappointment when racing at York the other day after a promising debut. This stable can go well with horses at big odds even though you'd expect Fretwell's better types to be backed off the boards. This daughter of Helmet cost 30,000G, purchased by Fretwell Racing Ltd. Money for this horse would bring further encouragement. They go well when racing at this course but this looks a tough nut to crack. 

The others are best watched.

Conclusion: Interesting race. Arabian Gift is difficult to oppose with the Godolphin debutantes winning on demand (almost). This filly costs a lot of money and you wouldn't want to be laying these Appleby horses to lose this season. I'm never sure what to make of Johnston's debutantes. They are either easy winners or poor losers. I respect their debutantes but rarely feel interested in backing them. Tig Tog may have claims if supported in the market. If priced 9/1 [at the time of writing] I would favour the major hopes. Paramount Love has valuable race experience and ran well on debut. She could well improve for that first start and this extra half furlong will help. Looks to hold respectable each-way claims. If one or two of the favourites disappoint she may look great value to hit the frame. Quivery is interesting. I am never too keen on betting debutantes as they can make you look like a loser in ten seconds flat. However, it is a good sign to see this expensive filly has Spencer booked to ride and a significant entry. Certainly, holds fair each-way claims if priced 8/1 & less SP. If the favourite is backed to odds-on she could be a worthy cover bet or most likely each-way punt.