Wednesday 11 May 2022

The Significance of the Favourite in Horse Racing Betting

Every horse race has at least one. 

Sometimes two or three. Odd times (presumably in a small field) each and every horse. 

We are talking the good old jolly. Betting on the favourite. The horse favoured by the populous of punters, if not, the lions share of the money bet on a given race. 

Are you a favourites, man?

I'm not saying that to trip you up or a leading question to tell you where you are going wrong. Why? Because you may be doing exactly the right thing. How do you know if you are doing the right thing when it comes to betting?

You are winning money long term. 

No easy feat even if you know more than most. 

I wrote a popular post on one of my other websites called: The Significance of the Outsider. It looked into the data of which trainers can win at big odds with their two-year-old debutantes. The surprising things was that it wasn't just those small canny stables which hit the target. In fact, a few large stables had a decent supply of debutantes winning at double-figure odds. Often very classy horses which, somehow, slipped under the radar. 

One of the best trainers to hit the target with big priced two-year-old debutantes is Michael Dods. In fact, he has an exceptional strike rate with placed horses at giant odds. And by that very token of getting placed, a few would go one step closer and get their head in front.

It's the same story for two-year-old horse trainers when it comes to them winning on debut with favourites. 

You get some who are very hard to stop. Consistent. Although very few are better than price to chance. 

However, looking through the data a number of trainers with a hot favourite shouldn't be viewed as a positive at all. 


Because if you saw their record for the last decade or more you would be filled with horror. For example horses priced 11/4 and less sp have a stat from a large enough sample suggesting they are more like a 7/1 shot. Now, no one is saying that it's a guarantee the next horse is a loser waiting to happen because each horse should be judged on its merits. 

I remember in the good old days Luca Cumani had a stat for his two year old horses on their second start which was truly desperate. It was horses relatively fancied in the betting too. 

I remember being at the course with my two cousins and said exactly what the data said and the horse won by about six lengths. 

Next time I kept my mouth shut. 

But what I'm saying is that from the wealth of information you have at hand and how prominent the betting is for all of us who like a flutter. It's remarkable how little we understand what the betting truly means for individual horse trainers. 

Like the ebb and flow of the tide, statistics can, and do, change over time. So perhaps we shouldn't be too dogmatic about what the data is predicting. You can only get so much info out of Mystic Meg or the tarot cards. 

However, their is one stat every gambler would like to know, that's a dreadful debut stat for a fancied horse. If you knew your hot favourite had a dire record, would you still be interested in betting? 

Perhaps all this data is just something and nothing. Who cares what it might imply. I know my horses and I'm betting to defy the odds. 

I'm pretty sure I could make you question that thought. 

Who knows, perhaps you're betting on the good favourite.

But wouldn't you like to know?

A little bit of digging can help you understand the significance of the favourite just like it does the outsider. 

Betting is all about having confidence in your understanding. 

Good luck. 

Photo: Pixabay free for commercial use and no attribution but given 

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