Showing posts with label Lingfield. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lingfield. Show all posts

Thursday, 2 November 2017

12:15 Lingfield 2YO Racing Tips (2nd November)

An EBF Fillies' Maiden Stakes over 7f on  Standard going. 

Nine two-year-olds take part five with racecourse experience and a quartet of newbies. 

Sir Michael Stoute's Scandaleus is a progressive daughter of War Front. Racing in the familiar silks of Flaxman Stables Limited, this January foal is an attractive type with size and scope. As mentioned, this homebred disappointed on debut at Kempton, the scene of all her races to date. That defeat was as much to do with inexperience. Turning courses are never the easiest of encounters for debutantes who need to be primed: fast from the stall, handle bends and the hustle and bustle of racing at close quarters. She wasn't seen from May to October so there may have been an issue or connection probably considered she needed a little time to mature. 

Punters hadn't forgotten this imposing filly when she returned to Kempton five months later. Once again, racing over 6f, but this time partnered by Ted Durcan. It was a fair effort at 3/1 to chase home Mushahadaat who had proven a thorn in the side of many a greying bettor. 

Scandaleus stepped up to 7f next start at Kempton where she had a real tussle with Cavatina who is held in fair regard by connections. Losing by a neck was a fair effort. She didn't lack in enthusiasm and led for most which may prove a valuable trait from stall one. 

She will go well today. 

As for the opposition.  

William Haggas should have a fair line with Ghanimah who finished fourth behind Sir Michael Stoute's charge on debut just over two weeks ago. This Irish-bred daughter of Invincible Spirit should improve and could hold serious each-way claims if prices allow. 

Sylvester Kirk has an able string of juveniles this season after a few horror years. Bubble And Squeak finished second on debut at Kempton when a 33/1 chance. This stable features fair each-way claims with runners on their second start with an SP of 13/2 & less. A wide draw isn't ideal. She wouldn't want to be slow from the stalls as seen on her racecourse bow.

John Gosden's West Palm Beach has the widest birth and will need to either head straight for the rail or settle in behind. Not the best starting point for this daughter of Scat Daddy. She wasn't overly fancied on debut but that looked a fair maiden. Punters may have been put off with a wide draw that day which saw her dwell and struggling off the pace before running on with some promise. A slow start on her second outing at Chelmsford had favourite-backers looking on in bewilderment. West Palm Beach kept on in the final furlong but never involved. She doesn't want a slow start today. 

Interesting to see Clive Cox training Moon Song who is owned by Cheveley Park Stud. This partnership is worthy of note. This grey filly is a daughter of Lethal Force. If backed to 13/2 & less SP it would bring some confidence. If weak in the market it may suggest she will need the run.  

Ralph Beckett sends Edge Of The World for her second start after finishing seventh of eleven at Chepstow. This 110,000 euro purchased wasn't overly fancied in the betting that day and most likely in need of the run. The betting is the best guide here. If supported it would bring some hope. If weak in the betting I would take a watching brief. 

I find Richard Hughes a difficult trainer to assess with his debutantes and Noteworthy is best watched. 

Very few of Ed Dunlop's two-year-old debutantes win when priced over 16/1. Tajarrob wears the second colours for Hamdan Al Maktoum. Strangely, I often fear the horse with the black cap. The betting will tell the story. 

Black Lace is best watched on debut for trainer Steve Woodman. 

Conclusion: I would let the betting settle to see if a few of these are drifters in the market. It may help filter the debutantes of any real note. Scandaleus will most likely set the pace from this low draw and should take some pegging back. She is probably priced to chance. If drifting to 11/4 would give value. I would be tempted to lay my bet at shorter odds in running, especially if touching odds-on. William Haggas has a line with the favourite. If Ghanimah is well backed it would be a sign of confidence. Even priced 13/2 & less SP, she holds respectable each-way claims. West Palm Beach has ability but needs to be a bit sharper from the stalls. A wide draw is potentially a problem. If slow away, her supporters will be looking glum and need a flying finish. I would rather bet in running because I get the feeling much bigger odds will be available. A difficult horse to back in ways but one who should be feared. Bubble And Squeak has each-way claims if fancied in the betting. If weak in the market I would take a watching brief. Another who may figure if supported is Edge Of The World. Moon Song is best assessed by the betting. If fancied to go well could be a chance but may need the run. These turning courses are not ideal for debutantes. If seriously backed, would be of interest. At the time of writing, the betting suggests others are favoured. The rest are best watched. Scandaleus looks to hold a decent chance. Ghanimah could prove to be an each-way alternative. 

Saturday, 29 July 2017

Saturday's Racing Tips

Saturday 29th July

Sorry for being a touch quiet yesterday, was travelled back from Yarmouth and very busy. 

1:25 Newcastle - 

Micheal Bell has Highlight Reel going here after being out classed at Ascot.  

2:00 Chester - 

The idiosyncratic Chester. Interesting to see how Buridan progresses from his winning debut at Windsor. Richard Hannon rated this colt. Well entered with a couple of listed races and earmarked for the Gimcrack. He has blinkers applied to concentrate the mind on this turning 5f. Can he defy a winner's penalty? That is probably the crux of the question. A number in opposition have something to prove. Connections will be expecting a bold show. 

2:15 Newmarket - 

Groveman needed the race on debut after a slow start he did well to run on and just missed out on a place. Hills gave this son of Holy Roman Emperor and entry for the National Stakes Group 1. That looks a touch ambitious but he should progress for that first start. Looks a tough contest. 

6:45 Salisbury - 

Harry Dunlop doesn't have many juveniles but Fighting Irish has ability. This son of Camelot ran well on debut and fancied to go well second time out at Ascot. That was a muddling race with the two leaders going a stride too fast. Not the easiest horse to assess but this is an easier task. 

7:00 Lingfield - 

Body Builder is one of the lesser lights from Hannon's stable. This is an easier task.

Saturday, 11 February 2017

2:35 Lingfield Racing Tips (11th Feb) MEDIAN AUCTION MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 6) (3yo)

A Median Auction Stakes over 5f 6y on Standard going.

Seven three-year-olds take part. Six horses have race experience, most interesting of those being Rae Guest's Berryessa. 

This Irish-bred daughter of Dandy Man wasn't fancied on debut at Lingfield over the minimum trip. However, odds of 33-1 didn't stop this horse from finishing a gallant second. By all accounts, she was a bargain buy when purchased by Rae Guest Racing for 5,000G at the yearling sales. Now in the ownership of RGRL Syndicate 2, they are likely to have some fun if not show a return on the original investment. 

In truth, this is a marked drop in grade when you consider she started her career at maiden class. The winner, Hathfa, had flattered to deceive a few times for Richard Hughes. She was a costly yearling purchase for Al Shaqab Racing at 260,000E. Those behind Berryessa where fair types. 

Guest's filly was slowly into stride, in touch in rear, and then suffered trouble in running, staying on well but chasing, in vein, the runaway winner.

The betting suggests, unless a surprise, this race is a three-cornered affair including the favourite. 

Mercers is owned, trained and bred by Peter Crate. This bay daughter of Piccolo hasn't raced since being runner-up at Windsor in October. She had been huge odds on her first two outings and 33-1 when second to easy odds-on winner Foxcatcher. It was a restricted race type and testing ground conditions so players may question whether the form of that race amounts to much. In a weak race, it isn't a surprise to see her figure in the market.

George Scott fields Jack The Truth who is making his debut. This chestnut gelding is a son of Dandy Man and cost £40,000 at the yearling sales. In the context of this race, that is a decent price tag. Scott has proven to be a disappointing trainer in ways with a number of well-backed horses trailing home. The betting is the best guide but even then I would be careful. 

Conclusion: These restricted race types are made for limited horses. It is usually the case a proven form horse is favoured over debutantes. Berryessa ran well on debut for a stable who know who to train and win. I suspect she wasn't considered a live hope on her racecourse bow but connections must have been impressed by what they saw. This is a drop in class. This looks an ideal opportunity to win. I wouldn't bet against this horse but I wouldn't jump in at too short odds. That is more of a reflection of my betting style than knocking her chances.