Monday's Racing Tips (3rd July)

4:45 Wolverhampton - 

Ed Dunlop doesn't overrate his juveniles but the stable is keen on Global Humor. They expected to win on debut but he bumped into a couple of talents. A step up in distance to 7f looks mores suiting. With a couple of winners in opposition, this will not be a walkover but he should take the beating. In an ideal world, this two-year-old would be an each-way price but that look impossible. I would want bigger than 6/4 to be betting. Interesting. 

6:00 Windsor - 

An intriguing puzzle. Dusty, trained by Mick Channon, received a Royal Ascot entry but then made her debut at Lingfield. She was a huge price that day which suggests little was expected. In truth, this daughter of Paco Boy didn't achieve a great deal. I thought she was given the Ascot entry on a whim so it was a surprise to see she has been given a Listed entry. The mystery deepens. A wide draw looks hard work at Windsor unless they stay on the far rail which is unlikely with the ground drying. She is priced 20/1 for this race. I wouldn't worry about the price because Channon can win a big odds second start. I would imagine if the stable feel this chestnut filly has any major hope she will be backed. It is intriguing to consider. However, if this April foal has ability she will show it today. I would feel more optimistic if better drawn. A 16 birth is hellishly difficult to negate unless staying on the far rail but that looks very unlikely. If drifting to incredible prices on the exchanges I may have a small speculative each-way bet but we have many ifs and buts floating around. 

6:45 Hamilton - 

Palmer has been knocking on the door. This tiny son of Acclamation is battling type who has been denied a win simply because he has been against strong opponents. He will probably enjoy this going. There is always a worry that he may regress because he has been given a few hard races and they can sour a juvenile in a race if they decide enough is enough. A form horse with some ability is Ventura Gold. He needs in excess of 5f but this stiff course and softer going may see him to better advantage. I would still have concerns he will be outpaced in the early stage so if betting you would be wise to bet in-running on the exchanges because you will secure greater odds. There is a concern he may be running over this trip to look disappointing with regard to a handicap rating. This could be a distinct possibility. I have little doubt this horse will be better over a stiffer trip and if disappointing today will be a very good bet if given a lowly official rating. 

2:30 Doncaster Racing Tips (18th June) Project Polar EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 5) (2yo)

A Fillies Novice Stakes over 7f 6y on good to firm going. 

Ten two-year-olds take part: five with race experience and an equal measure of debutantes who predominantly head the market. 

Charlie Appleby is all smiles this season while Saeed bin Suroor shifts his way through the chaff. 


Arabian Gift is a brown filly sired by Dubawi out of a debut-winning mare who was limited but liked a trip. This filly cost 525,000G at the yearling sales. She has been detailed on the informative website Group Horse being worthy of note. Appleby has excelled with debutantes this season. They are difficult to oppose although punters always risk getting their fingers burnt if a lesser light hits the course in this purple patch. She holds a Moyglare entry which adds to confidence. 

If the betting is correct, Godolphin's starlet has four major opponents.

Mark Johnston fields One Second. Could that be an indicator of exceptional speed? This bay filly is sired by Intello [German stallion]  out of a limited but winning mare. This January foal races in the familiar silks of Abdulla Al Mansoori. She cost 42,000G from Genesis Green Stud, purchased by the trainer. Johnston hasn't seen the success of previous years with this crop of two-year-olds. However, he is a capable handler who can ready a debutante. He can be tricky to assess with horses making their racecourse bow. I'm often quoted as saying: ''They are either easy winners or poor losers.'' I would take a watching brief. 

Jeremy Noseda hasn't hit the ground running this season. A couple of two-year-olds ran creditably without tasting victory. Quivery is owned by Marc Keller. This American-bred daughter of Violence cost $360,000 when purchased at two [14th March]. She holds a Moyglare Stakes Group 1 entry. Interesting to see Jame Spencer booked to ride, which adds to confidence. The stable can go well with their debutantes, especially when priced 8/1 & less SP. This April foal could go well.  

Few trainers can hold a candle to Richard Fahey. His performance with debutantes is exceptional. Compared even to the most successful handlers, they pale into insignificance. His first and second-time strike rate stride rate for fancied two-year-old runners is very similar. It's a stat you do not hear any pundits mention. However, it is a truly astounding factor. What it means is that his debutantes are generally trained to the minute and experienced. Paramount Love ran well on her first start at Doncaster when finishing a creditable third behind the Royal Ascot-bound Natural. This daughter of Pivotal wasn't fancied in the betting that day at odds of 16/1. She was held up but ran on with promise some way clear of the fourth. That experience will see her well today and this extra half furlong is to her benefit. 

The next best in the betting is Richard Hannon's newcomer Tig Tog, who races in the familiar silks of Sullivan Bloodstock Ltd. This March foal is a daughter of Dark Angel and 90,000G yearling purchase. The betting is the best guide. She is presently priced 9/1 with bookmakers. If she is capable of winning today I would expect her to start at shorter odds. 

The only other debutante is David Brown's Headware, who is owned by John Fretwell. This combination has found a few talented horses over the years but this season has been rather uneventful. Hard Graft proved a disappointment when racing at York the other day after a promising debut. This stable can go well with horses at big odds even though you'd expect Fretwell's better types to be backed off the boards. This daughter of Helmet cost 30,000G, purchased by Fretwell Racing Ltd. Money for this horse would bring further encouragement. They go well when racing at this course but this looks a tough nut to crack. 

The others are best watched.

Conclusion: Interesting race. Arabian Gift is difficult to oppose with the Godolphin debutantes winning on demand (almost). This filly costs a lot of money and you wouldn't want to be laying these Appleby horses to lose this season. I'm never sure what to make of Johnston's debutantes. They are either easy winners or poor losers. I respect their debutantes but rarely feel interested in backing them. Tig Tog may have claims if supported in the market. If priced 9/1 [at the time of writing] I would favour the major hopes. Paramount Love has valuable race experience and ran well on debut. She could well improve for that first start and this extra half furlong will help. Looks to hold respectable each-way claims. If one or two of the favourites disappoint she may look great value to hit the frame. Quivery is interesting. I am never too keen on betting debutantes as they can make you look like a loser in ten seconds flat. However, it is a good sign to see this expensive filly has Spencer booked to ride and a significant entry. Certainly, holds fair each-way claims if priced 8/1 & less SP. If the favourite is backed to odds-on she could be a worthy cover bet or most likely each-way punt. 

3:20 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (6th February) BETWAY MEDIAN AUCTION MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 6) (3-5yo)

A Median Auction Maiden Stakes over 5f 216y on Standard going. 

Eleven runners, predominantly three-year-olds, although a couple aged four and one five who carry penalties. 

A restricted race type based on yearlings with a median price of less than £20,000. At a push, five horse are found in the betting. Beyond that point, the price is upwards of 20/1. 

Mark Johnston has the favourite in Blue Bahia who hasn't been seen for just over a month. This Irish-bred daughter of Big Bad Bob has raced seven times, hitting the frame with some regularity. She started her career in Ireland with Dermot Weld before heading to Kingsley Park just after Christmas. She has placed in these last two starts and has an official rating of 73 [was as high as 83]. She isn't no world beater but shown ability and on race type is dropped in class. 

Richard Fahey fields Right Action for Middleham Park Racing. This son of Dandy Man hasn't been seen since late August. This gelding has shown a glimmer of ability although racing at this level. Racing over a distance ranging from 5-7f, this six furlongs looks the best trip on the previous form. This will be the first assault on the all-weather course. Right Action hasn't been disgraced on a number of occasions although looks limited. He too has dropped down in the handicap to an official rating of 73.  

Ebitda is once race, which may give punters a chance of latching onto an improving horse. Scott Dixon didn't have much to celebrate with his juveniles in 2016. This daughter of Compton Place cost just 12,500G when purchased by the trainer at the yearling sales. Now in the ownership of Chesterfield Estates, she belied her odds of 25/1 on debut when racing at Southwell over 5f. A slow start and inexperience proved costly, although I imagine she needed the race and connections must have known the minimum trip would be a shade too short. This step up in distance will help. Horses often make huge improvement first to the second start, and I can see this filly going well. 

I've always been a fan of Eric Alston, who has made his name training sprinters. It's a shame, like so many of the smaller yards, that they are not given the opportunity to show their craft. Poetic Queen is a homebred for loyal patrons Mr & Mrs Middlebrook. This bay filly is a daughter of Dylan Thomas. She has raced five times and not been particularly fancied in the betting. She finished second last time out of over 5f in a restricted race at Newcastle. An official rating of just 55 doesn't set the greatest of standard and you have to consider something will go better.

This race type often favours form horses even if they look pretty limited. It is understandable to search for a debutante because at least they haven't proven themselves to be poor at this time. Dean Ivory doesn't have too many debut winners although if he has a talented horse they are not usually shrinking violets. Harlequin Storm is a bay son of Clodovil who cost 42,000G when purchased at the yearling sales. He was originally purchased by Peter & Ross Doyle Bloodstock. From a low draw [1] he is worth watching in the betting. 

Conclusion: No strong views about this race. Form horses are usually favoured over debutantes in this race type. Blue Bahia has shown ability and connections will be fancying their claims. They may be fearful of Ebitda who is likely to improve a good deal for that first start. Dixon is a wise trainer and I can imagine this filly will be fit and ready. The stable are not against bold front-running performances. If priced 13/2 & less SP it would hold fair each-way claims. Harlequin Storm is interesting although I am generally against debutantes at this level. He was quite an expensive purchase. I would definitely keep an eye on the betting. If substantially backed, I would give this debutante fair claims of hitting the frame. If exceptionally weak in the market, take a watching brief.