Betting For a Living - Discipline

Betting. For many, it's a disgusting word to be banished from all but the devil himself. 

An old mate says: ''I don't gamble, Buddy.'' 

Why are so many people scared to bet? They have seen how it has been a costly decision for friends, family or celebrities. Look at that football player who lost a fortune. That old bloke who lives in the bookmakers his family gone. 

To be fair gambling can be very deceiving. It lures people to the edge of the cliff when they think they are viewing a magnificent vista of meadows with flowers perfumed with a heavenly scent. 

It is all too easy to think you understand what you are getting into with gambling but a lack of experience can bring you to your knees. It is similar in many aspects of life. Without a doubt, hindsight is a wonderful thing. By the time many gamblers realise they have lost too much money they are hooked. They chase their losses to a point where all logic has gone replaced by a false hope that tomorrow will be different. It can be different. Few things are more saddening than seeing someone betting and losing time after time without ever accepting they will never win while others do. 

What makes them so different?

You may begin to question why. You should question everything you do. Like a betting psychiatrist. I'm sure Sigmund Freud had an explanation you would never have figured. 

What is the difference between winners and losers? 


DISCIPLINE 

Crucially, discipline in those early years of betting. It is the key to successful gambling. You need to have skill based on a disciplined approach.  

Is your betting governed by rules, guidelines, insight, knowledge & experience?

Let's look at a tradesman, dentist, athlete... Could you achieve more than a skilled person without experience? Unless you have honed your skills, your chance of achieving a better standard than a seasoned professional is slim.

Can a novice beat an expert? They may get lucky once in a blue moon but not longterm. 

A good chess player vs a seasoned professional. They would look at you with a knowing smile. Gambling is just the same. To win you need to outwit an experienced layer. Bookmakers are far from perfect but they are no fools.They use talented people to beat you up. It is a battle which you need to know the rules. 

To win you have to be confident in your ability. If someone looks you in the eyes and says: ''I'm going to win'' How would that make you feel? Threatened? Apprehensive? Or would you look back and think you have underestimated me. In fact, ''I'm going to win''. 

What I would say to any budding gambler is don't be in any rush to bet before you have learned those basic principles you need to be a successful gambler. It is difficult to define because each gambler has their own angle, niche, expertise. However, if you bet without understanding you will learn so many bad habits they may prove to be a curse you cannot escape. Learn from your mistakes without losing money. Get a grip with the subject matter. Build your knowledge and niche so you have your own approach. From there, build steadily. Be disciplined and work with reason. Without an answer to a question, you will likely make a poor decision. Even as a skilled gambler has days where they make the wrong call. Every winner or loser answers a question which longterm can help you be a success. Listen to what they say. 

Can you Really Win at Gambling?

So many people are brainwashed. They don't even realise that their brain has been washed. I think it has been bleached or taken out of a hinged skull as part of a new advert for Fairy Liquid. It's all too easy to notice those who are struggling with this affliction. They have a certain look on their face. A pale, bemused, inquisitive, dashing look which turns to scepticism if you utter certain words. These people don't know anything about gambling. However, they think they know one thing really well: ''You can't beat the bookmakers. 

Can you?''

This may seem a strange question to ask. 

But can you plaster a wall? Butcher a pig? Be a croupier in a casino? 

It might seem a strange question to ask but it gets the point across. 

Let's imagine you are walking down the street and randomly searching for a given person. How many people would you need to ask before you found a quality plasterer? I don't know the ratio of plasterers in the general population. However, my brother is in that exact trade and I know he does an excellent job. 

If I said to you: Can you plaster a wall? The chances are, you would say: No! I may ask 100 people and they may give me the same answer. 

Gambling is the same. To be a successful gambler you are one of few. You didn't just wake up one morning to find you were a professional gambler just as all those in the building trade didn't just set their alarm clock the night before to wake one frosty morning to find they are an expert bricklayer. I wish it happened. 

Sadly not!

It takes time, dedication, experience, interest, blood, sweat and tears (perhaps). Trying to pebble dash a wall is enough to make a grown man cry. 

The difference with gambling is that it is a cliche that no one can beat the bookies. Whereas few question someone who says they are a mechanic, window cleaner or even a solicitor. I guess they just consider that it can't be done. Mainly because they don't understand how it could be possible. It's very strange how someone who doesn't understand something can have an opinion. Brainwashed. Look closely and they have soap suds in their ears. It's a strange kind of ''logic''.

However, just because you can't believe it is possible, there are people making money in every niche you can imagine. How? They just know a little more than most and that little better understanding makes them money. In that sense, they are the best man, woman or child for the job. That's why in the old days, children were chimney sweeps. An adult was just too big.  

In truth, being successful at one thing is very much the same as being successful at another. Nothing is easy. At least not being to a level where you can earn money from a skill.  Every predator has a predator. Nothing is guaranteed. Bookmakers are cunning like foxes, but they can get caught. Plenty of bookmakers go out of business. Competition from other bookmakers but big winners too. 

Would you tell your doctor you know more than him? I often say to people: Don't limit someone. That limitation isn't usually anything about the ''other person'' because how do you know what they are about? In truth, it is simply your own limitation which you project onto them. It's strange but true.

If you don't have an open mind, you won't see the potential in lots of things. Why should it be a surprise when you try to open a door it seems stuck fast while someone walks through without a care in the world.

If your mind is closed to opportunity, understanding and success that door may never open. 


Betting Strategy

Betting Strategy
What's your betting strategy? 

Gambling, betting, investing...name it what you will. I've noticed something disturbing about people who bet. Even the most intelligent, calculated people lose all sense when they catch the gambling bug. Let me correct that point, most people lose objectivity, logic, sense. Some take their betting very seriously, as they should. 

Perhaps the main problem for many punters is they bet for a buzz. It's an adrenaline kick. To be fair, most people bet for fun. Even people who have been betting for decades. Why do I say such a thing about seasoned gamblers? Because for all their years of betting, very few learn how to bet in a disciplined manner. 

They have a basic understanding, idea, thought and it often stays at that fledgeling level. It's like learning basic French but they stay on at college for a decade without progressing to the intermediate or higher level. It isn't that they cannot achieve a higher level but they just don't try satisfied with a thought they know enough. 

Interesting question: How do you select a tip? 


Answer: Like everyone else! 

That's the mentality of most people who gamble. However, if you know anything about horse racing, poker or a skill-based sports betting you should find that answer quite funny, worrying or terribly shortsighted. There is a world of difference between a naive and professional gambler. 

The major point is that they don't bet for fun. 

Betting for most people can only be considered fun because they don't have the skills, experience or knowledge to be viewed as professional. They may think they have a level of knowledge but the majority of punters don't. You need only to scratch the surface to appreciate there is no depth or understanding. Most lack a basic understanding. Even if they bet serious money it doesn't make them professional. The point is they don't realise they are lacking. 

Fun betting, for the buzz, is, in my opinion, bad news. If there is no reason or rationale to why someone bets then everything is a potential bet. That's why people bet, chase their losses, lose even more and their life falls apart. Betting may seem a pretty innocent pastime but without discipline, understanding, consideration and planning it is a bad decision. It's a matter of how much you will lose. 

The principles of betting are more important than the selection itself. The wise man doesn't build his house upon the sand.

The phrase: Bet what you can afford to lose. It is a basic principle that will help most save them losing their shirt. However, if you don't have an answer to a question, when will you see the word STOP? Guidelines, built on knowledge, are key to success. 

Too many people do not appreciate their true naivety when it comes to gambling. Experience comes with time if you have an open mind. Horses aren't the only ones who wear blinkers.

Betting in a routine fashion is brainless. The man who routinely pops into the bookmakers to bet on the machines. If he calculated how much he lost over one year it would be staggering. 

There are hundreds of examples of betting without thinking. 

Don't bet for fun. Don't bet for the buzz. Bet because, on balance, you know it is a wise investment based on knowledge, experience and skill. 

Wednesday's Racing Tips (27th September)

Racing Tips
Wednesday - 

2:00 Redcar - (Nursery)

Noted juveniles: Sir Walter. 

Big price but may show more at this level. 

2:10 Goodwood - 

Noted juveniles: Setting Sail, Mt Augustus & Voice Of The North. 

Three nice juveniles here.

2:30 Redcar -  (Nursery) 

Noted juveniles: Situation & Bee Machine. 

A couple of rogues. Situation is capable on his day while Bee Machine, who cost 50,000G, has proven very disappointing. Both huge odds so you are hoping for improvement which isn't beyond the realms but you need a leap of faith.   

2:40 Goodwood - 

Noted juveniles: (Best entered of these) Billesdon Brook.

A class filly who should win at prohibitive odds. 

3:00 Redcar - 

Noted juveniles: Al Hajar.

Another talented juvenile who hasn't shown yet. This looks a fine opportunity but short odds. 

5:40 Kempton - (Nursery) 

Noted juveniles: Tony Soprano.

Has found his level and Martyn Meade places his horses well. 

6:10 Kempton - 

Noted juveniles: Nicklaus & Corrosive. 

Both horses are held in decent regard and I expect this pair to run very well. 

* Note: Please remember nursery races can be unpredictable but may reveal big price opportunities. They should be considered as speculative. If looking for best bets stick with the maidens/stakes races. 

My Name is Graham...

We're back from our annual pilgrimage to Great Yarmouth. 

It's in memory of my late father, Colin and many relatives sadly passed including uncle Fred, Keith, Roy and their friends who loved a bet. 

Avid readers will probably know we go to Yarmouth for fun, gambling and good food. The gambling part takes centre stage although I don't bet big money at the races on holiday compared with working from home. I find it difficult to be as professional as in my daily routines. The caravan I shared with a group of five isn't the most ideal place to contemplate wise bets although I did settle in with the holiday distractions better than I thought. 

I went to a couple of the race meetings and found a few winners which made it worthwhile. 

I missed meeting up with Jerry Banks which is a real shame. Jerry runs the great website called Jerry's Best Bets. He found the winner in the Listed race at Yarmouth, Beautiful Morning, who pretty much sauntered home in style. 

The casino wasn't such a pleasurable experience. I do enjoy the Grosvenor Casino because it is an old listed building with real character and charm. It is a great place to go for a cheap meal. They want to get you through the door and lose your money. I have done well at the casino over the last few years and, believe it or not, won money. This time the roulette wheel was spinning without luck and over three nights took a wedge out of my wallet. Not good. It can be a depressing betting, watching that bloody ball stop in a number you haven't picked. 

It seems so easy after it has stopped! 

I'm still winning long term but not a great deal. The casino tempts punters from the races by giving a free drink and free bet to all who take their race badge. Basically, it is like them giving you £10 for free. Considering most people lose it is probably the best £10 they have ever spend on marketing. 

It is interesting watching others gamble. 

You get a real mix of people. Some betting 50p chips, £1 chips...while a few are either there to impress or just don't know when to stop. 

I guess everyone has their limit. 

I've been to the Grosvenor a lot and you see a few familiar faces. I'm pretty sure the majority of their customers are regular bettors. I say that because even mid-week they look a familiar crowd. 

A couple of them pretty big gamblers.

Each to their own. I have chatted to one or two in passing but not to appreciate their background or where they made their money. However, they are clearly not short of cash by the manner they bet. 

One of the regulars is Graham. He dresses in a comfortable fashion which belies how much he bets. He isn't there to impress in the fashion stakes but boy does he get the money out as that roulette wheel spins for its life scorching the veneer while fate decides your fortune. 

Graham didn't have the normal pink chips worth £100. In fact, at first, I couldn't see where he was getting his chips from. The croupier kept pushing £500 of £5 chips in his direction and then five £100 chips. So he was cashing up £1000 a time. I noticed he had a number of light-blue chips worth a grand a piece. 

To be fair, he was having about as much luck as me for the most part. He wistfully placed £500 in £5 chips across the table and lost the lot in about six consecutive spins. He carried on betting regardless if not with extra verve as he started putting the five £100 chips on too hoping lady luck would come smiling after a number of dastardly verdicts. 

Thankfully, Graham hit a single number with one of his £100 chips winning £3500. I heard him mention he was down £6000 before that win. I had seen him on the other table a bit earlier. 

Where do these people get all their money from? I will have to get chatting to him some time although he isn't really my kind of person or at least that is how I feel.  

The fine dining part comes from visiting Pamela's restaurant just around the corner from the casino. A jewel in the crown of Yarmouth. Well worth a visit with exceptional service and gourmet delights. I had one of those cocktails made with dry ice which looks rather spectacular if not difficult to drink as I kept breathing in those fumes. A great few days down Yarmouth. 

Thinking of those loving people past & present. 

Tuesday's Racing Tips

Patient Speculation
Tuesday 12th September - 

2:25 Leicester - 

Noted juveniles: Hula Girl, Preening, Tivoli & Ziarah. 

Interesting: Competitive heat. Hula Girl ran well on debut and sure to improve for this extra furlong and experience. Preening is a big price but been noted by James Fanshawe. The stable can spring a surprise at huge odds although the form horses are probably best today. Tivoli was made favourite last time out but had problems in-running Finished well and may appreciate this stiff finish. Ziarah stepped up from five furlongs to seven and it proved a good decision. She is a battling type who is likely to run on at the death.   

2:55 Leicester - 

Noted juveniles: Beautiful Memory.

Note: Saeed bin Suroor is the poor relation to Charlie Appleby this season but this well-bred filly is worthy of respect.  

3:25 Leicester - 

Noted juveniles: Felisa & Bodybuilder.

Interesting: Even a selling race has significantly entered juveniles. Felisa is a fair horse for this grade and deserves a win. Bodybuilder has been significantly dropped in class and another horse who deserves respect.  

The Best Horse Trainers in UK

Frankel
Who is your favourite horse trainer?

I guess, for many, it will be a high-profile trainer. Sir Michael Stoute, Willie Mullins, John Gosden et al. 

It's interesting to consider every trainer big, small or one man and his horse have their day. I always cheer for the underdog. 

We have all listened to trainers detailing their thoughts before a race and the tone is often very different before and after. Certain trainers are known for being over optimistic. Glass three-quarters full type of mind. Others run from interviewers in case they bring bad luck. superstitious. 


Dangle that luckless rabbit's foot before they dare muse about what may be. 

Clive Brittain [retired] was one trainer who was always optimistic. In truth, it wasn't a bad thing at all because the power of the word is strong. I believe. I don't believe. Which would you prefer? We can do this! 

The number of times he would race a horse at the highest level and it would work for him. A horse priced 100/1. Placed. Remember Terimon runner-up to Nashwan in the 1989 Epsom Derby. Oh, what were the odds? 


500/1
Get in!

How many pundits, trainers, owners would have said: ''You're wasting your time and money.''

As many of you will know, I follow two-year-old horse racing. I run a private website called Group Horse Daily which details the best horses in training. It is remarkably accurate. You name a talented juvenile winner and the chances are we detailed it before debut. It isn't my word, it comes from the trainers themselves. 


The power of the word.

Take a look at www.grouphorse.co.uk to learn more and join our free mailing list to get a limited number of very talented horses that the trainer would rather you didn't know. 

How do you measure a trainer's judgment? 

It is surprising how accurate most trainers are at knowing their horses. It is their job and livelihood. 

What do you do for a living? How good are you at your job? How would you compare to someone who was learning their trade, business or someone who just enjoyed a hobby? I suspect you would be in a different league. 

If you want to know the best unraced and lightly race two-year-old horses in training, then you need to know the font of all knowledge - the trainer's voice.