Wednesday, 7 September 2011

£1 A Day Patient Staking Approach Results Update.

I will not be posting results updates every day, however today was the day that I decided to enter the markets for the first time so I thought showing the results would be a good idea. Despite not achieving a positive result I am not to concerned as there was a lot of value in the bet at the price that I managed to achieve.

Just to illustrate where I see the value in the selection, here are a few key numbers:

I backed the selection eachway at odds of 4/1 with Skybet who were offering ¼ the odds for the place.
I then laid the win on Betdaq at decimal odds of 4.9.
The place odds on betdaq at the off were 1.65.

So converting all of the odds to decimal in the table below, you can see that basically the win part of the bet cancelled itself out and I achieved place odds of 2:00 for a selection whose true price for placing was approximately 1.65.(Numerous studies have shown that the odds at the start of a race on the exchanges is a very accurate indication of the true probability).

Decimal Odds --->
Win Odds
Place Odds
4.9(lay value)

Because of  the fact that only £1 was lost today, I will start tomorrow with effectively the same bank size as I started with today due to the fact that with my £1 A Day Patient Staking Approach I will be adding another £1 to the bank tomorrow.

The above does not change the fact that after the first bet my profit and loss account is showing -£1 but it does mean that I will be able to take advantage of a similar value bet tomorrow should one be available.

Anyway here’s the figures up to now:

Start Date: 01/09/2011
Todays Date: 07/09/2011
Number of days: 7
Amount added: £7
Number of Bets / Trades: 1
Profit / Loss: -£1
Current Bank size: £6

I know that my new approach may appear a little mad but I am sure that over time it’s merits should become apparent.

I hope that you have enjoyed this post.

Please feel free to ask any questions in the form of a comment.

Stay Patient


  1. Mark

    I've tried a similar system but gave up due a lack of a decent return. The main issue being that it's very easy to get better place odds at the bookies than the exchanges but much more difficult to get better win odds on the exchanges after taking commission into account.
    A couple of comments -
    Why not just lay the place at 1.65 for a guaranteed profit rather than waiting for the results?
    If you double your stake you'll also be able to use Betfair for laying as well which will give you more chance of achieving the same/better win prices.
    There is a way of effectively increasing your win prices by a point on selected races at Bet365. However it commits you to play in the next race that might not be suitable. This could increase your edge though.
    Best Odds Guaranteed will help your return a lot in the long term.

    I wish you luck with this and look forward to some results that show profitability. I'm sure it will but my experience at twenty five times higher stakes really only showed I could nick a fiver or tenner here or there. I'm obviously not as patient as you because this seemed a lot of work for a small return.

  2. Hi Sean

    Thanks for taking the time to give such and indepth and helpful comment.

    Because you raise so many valid points I am going to answer them in the form of a post, so watch this space.

    Thanks again.


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