Tuesday, 3 May 2011

Here’s Why My Portfolio Lite Is Getting Even Lighter!

Recently I wrote this post Changes Ahead! , outlining my plans for streamlining my Portfolio Lite.  In the post I wrote that my golden rule would be the following:

"The golden rule is that I will only back a maximum of TWO tips per tipster on any one given day."

I have felt quite comfortable with that rule, I have missed out on a few winners but I have also benefited from missing a few losers as well.

The basic premise behind the rule for me was that I would pick the selections that the tipster regarded as their highest value bets,  I would know which were the highest value bets  by looking at the points value that the tipsters assigned to their selections, if the points values were the same for one or more selections I would pick  the selection with the highest odds.

Well now I want to take things a step further and say that:

 I am only going to back the top selection by each tipster

The rules for deciding which bet to place will be similar to before but there will be one important change.

The change will be that if the selection with the most points is at odds of six to one or less I will use my discretion as to whether I will use that selection or another that may be a smaller points value but over odds of five to one.

My reasons for making that decision are based on my aversion to risk and preference for selections that are at longer odds from certain tipsters.

By making the above changes there will be a further freeing up of time and also the risk reward ratio for my bets will be much more aligned with my personal preferences.

One added bonus created by the time savings made will be that  I will be able to add a few more well chosen tipsters to further diversify my Portfolio lite.

These will not be the last changes that I make to My Portfolio Lite as I am soon going to examine the issue of staking to see if I am currently using the best possible plan.

I know that it is quite easy to tinker to much, I also know that there will be people who completely disagree with what I am doing, but what I also know, above all else, is that I have a definite goal of creating a highly focused, profitable and flexible portfolio that is not time consuming to administer.  I believe the goal is valuable enough that I am prepared to make a thousand changes and completely rebuild the portfolio if that is what it take to create my perfect Portfolio Lite.

I hope that you have enjoyed this post.

Stay Patient


  1. Hi Mark,

    You have got to be happy with the basic format and that is especially so at the beginning as you don't want to have a monumental change halfway throught the season. At the end of the day it is your Portfolio and it has to work for you. Finding time to update blogs and placing bets is more time consuming than people imagine. It's no surprise most bloggers give up early because it can be a pretty thankless task at time...lol. Keep up the good work. I think the concept of Portfolio Lite is very exciting and a great read.


  2. Hi Jason

    I suppose that I will always be tinkering with something to do with my portfolio, sometimes big changes, sometimes small changes.

    I regard my blog as a labour of love; some people like to pit their wits against computer games etc. I like to pit mine against the markets. It's a game that constantly challenges and changes so I find that it is best to be fluid in my approach.

    I think that recording my thoughts on the blog helps to focus my thought processes and I definitely feel more confident about my approach when blogging about it.

    Thanks for the comment

  3. Mark - I think its a great blog but this is a move in the wrong direction.

    Realistically, if the best bets in any one week could be ranked they might look like this:

    Saturday 1
    Saturday 2
    Saturday 3
    Friday 1
    Saturday 4
    Friday 2
    Thursday 1
    Wednesday 1
    Thursday 2
    Tuesday 1
    Monday 1

    Restricting any selection process to one per day, or one per week, or one per month can never be correct. Unless you are pricing everything (which you very rarely see, at least in the public domain), you will never know the "strongest" bets. Its the equivalent (IMO) of setting a £20 target each day and not stopping until you reach it, or stopping as soon as you reach it. Its artificial, nonsensical and very anti-long run.

    Good luck with your project - I will enjoy reading about the journey. You will no doubt have some very testing days where all the second-best selections win and you hit a bagel on the day. +EV is +EV, if you are going to follow what other people offer, its very dangerous (IMO) to pick the "best" of it.

  4. Hi Mouldhouse

    Thanks for a great comment.

    You are correct and I will have days where I will back the loser and all the other selections by that service would have been successful. That is as you say the risk that I take.

    I understand from your theoretical list of bets that I will have days where I pick a 1 point selection and on other days I will leave a selection with a higher point value because there is one with an even higher value.

    My reasoning is that as you say a positive expected value is a positive expected value, so every bet that I make will have a positive expected value no matter what the point value it is.

    The reason that I want to slim down the number of selections is not to maximise profits but to ensure that I can continue to manage a profitable, DIVERSE portfolio in the limited time available to me.

    I suppose what I am saying is that it is an experiment that I am running in the public arena and that I do run it with the very real risk of failure, however I really don't care about that as long as I give it my best shot.

    By the way I really do respect your views as I am sure that I remember some excellent thought provoking comments that you wrote on Cassini's blog and just so you know I have become a follower of your blog and I have added a link in my blogroll.

    Thanks again

  5. Thanks Mark

    I do appreciate that diversity, or indeed a lack of correlation between sources (its tough to know exactly how different sources correlate of course, if your each-way selections and your 16 runner hcap selections are based on the same logic one would expect them to have a very significant correlation I guess, but when you are following other people's selections unless they are very open about selection methods and processes, which understandably very few are, you are only speculating really) could be of a serious benefit.

    I still stand by my view that its a bit like setting a "session target" if you will. But maximisation is pretty much always my goal in this game, so if your goals are slightly different, its only understandable that we would have differing views on the issue.

    Thanks for the kind words.


Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.