Tuesday, 5 April 2011

Why I’m Introducing The Market Examiner To Goldilocks!

You may need to click on the screen shot to see the details clearly

As regular readers of my blog will remember I said the following in my post introducing My Portfolio Lite:

“I am going to start my portfolio with only free or donation based tipsters.  I will qualify that by saying I will choose a few of my favourite subscription based services to follow on the blog, but they will not be part of my ‘Portfolio Lite’, they will act as a benchmark that I can compare the performance and professionalism of the free tipsters to.”

The First service that I added to what I am going to call my ‘Benchmark Portfolio’ of subscription based services was  the highly profitableThe Market Examiner

I then went on to write this post To make More Money Let's Examine The Market giving an over view of The Market Examiner service and my reasons for adding them to my ‘Benchmark Portfolio’. In the post I explained that although the Market Examiner does have a recommended staking plan based on win only bets, I wanted to try my twist on an eachway staking theme using a calculator that I have devised.

As you can see from the screenshot at the top of this post, my calculator is called ‘The Patient Staking Eachway Calculator’.

Before I explain how the calculator works I would like to briefly explain why I created it.

It is commonly regarded that apart from a few exceptions(my free eachway tips being one of them) the bet that achieves the most value when betting on horse racing is the win single bet.

However one problem that a large majority of people have with the win single bet is coping with the psychological pressure that ensues when, for example, their selection has made all looks to have the race sewn up and then just gets beaten at the post. These sorts of pressures can be massively compounded when a long run of loosing bets occurs.

So the challenge that I set myself was what kind of staking plan could I use so as to shield myself from those sorts of devastating runs.  I know that if I bet eachway I would reduce the length of my losing runs, but at the cost of giving a good part of the value contained within the win bet back.

What I really wanted was a form of ‘Goldilocks’ eachway bet that kept as much of the value held within the win bet, but reduced the length of any losing runs.

That is when I came up with idea of backing eachway at a bookmaker and then laying off part of the place part of the eachway bet on the exchanges, so as to achieve the following :

  • If my selection wins I get the profit from the win bet plus a profit from the place part of the eachway bet equivalent to the win bet stake.

  • If my selection places I lose the win part of the eachway bet, but the loss is offset by the profit from the place part of the eachway bet equivalent to the win bet stake, ensuring that I neither win or lose anything.

  • If my selection is unplaced I lose the win part of the eachway bet but only a fraction of the place part of the eachway bet because of the place lay bet on the exchange.

Obviously the calculations can be quite complex so being a bit of an excel geek (don’t tell anyone) I decided to create a calculator to do all the sums for me.

Now before anyone says something like “Here we go, any minute now there will be a sales pitch for the calculator” I would just like to say that if I am happy with how my initial live tests go with it, I will type up instuctions and give copies of it away to people who follow my blog.

Anyway just to confirm the details of the staking plan that I am using for the Market examiner service is:

Bank size 150 points

Bet size ½ a point each way making a total of 1 point staked (minus the place lay profits where applicable)

Obviously I have only given a very brief outline of one of the features of my patient staking eachway calculator so I will expand on the features of the calculator and how they work in a post or posts in the future.

I hope that you have enjoyed this post
Stay Patient

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