Wednesday, 20 April 2011

Changes Ahead!

For the last two days I have been promising to post about my planned changes to the portfolio lite and benchmark portfolio, I was originally going to post about them yesterday but was rudely interrupted by a FIGHT that broke out between The Market Examiner and Bechers Brook over who was the most profitable tipster in my portfolios(That fight is still going on by the way).

Today I was supposed to have posted my portfolios updated results but as my portfolios results recording is part of the planned changes I thought that I would post about the changes today and then post the results tomorrow.

Before I explain what the changes are, I would like to just take this opportunity to explain why I am making them.

The main reason for my blog and the driving force behind every action that I take regarding it is to help in my education in what I call the art of patient speculation. By that I mean the learning and using all the skills involved in becoming an independently profitable speculator in the sports betting markets.

My portfolio Lite and Benchmark portfolio’s are to me an integral part of that learning process because they should allow me to learn from profitable services or individuals that simply by the fact that I have included them in the portfolio’s means that I think they are extremely professional in their approach and should provide me with exemplary examples of how to approach my chosen discipline.

In other words if they are as profitable as I expect them to be I will in effect be paid by my winnings to learn from some of the best teachers.

The profits are indeed rolling in as anyone who has followed this blog will know, however I have been increasingly aware of the exponential growth in the time it takes me to administer the portfolios when I add a new service.

Now I believe that time management is one of the core skills we need to learn as sports speculators, so what could I do about the situation?  I want to add more services and methods that operate in a range of sports but could see a massive time management problem developing.

There are numerous ways I could have approached the situation but I have decided on the following course of action which to some people may seem like the wrong course of action but to me it is the best solution.

I am going to keep all of the current tipsters and will expand the number and variety of tipsters over time but I am going set in place a strict rule for how I follow them.

The golden rule is that I will only back a maximum of TWO tips per tipster on any one given day.

The way that I will work out which tips to back is basically simple, they will be the tips that the tipster risks the most money/points on.

If there are three or more selections from a tipster and they are all for the same amount of money/points then I will back the two that are at the longest odds.

If there are three or more selections that are the same point’s value and the same odds I will use my own discretion to choose the two that I believe offer the best value.

My reasons and logic for implementing those rules are:

  • It will massively help with my time management, freeing up time for me to invest in other aspects of my sports speculation education

  • By backing only those selections that the tipster is prepared to lose the most money on will mean that I should be backing the selections which they believe contain the most value.

  • By backing the selections that are the same point’s value but higher odds, again I will be backing selections that contain the most value.

  • By using my discretion to decide which selections to back when the points and odds value are the same, will force me to actively follow the service rather than passively follow it.

There is one major challenge that I foresee with my new approach, which is that there will be numerous occasions where individual tipsters, or collectively the tipsters as a group, will have a massively profitable day based on their selections that I have not backed, which I believe will at times create quite intense psychological pressure based on feelings of missing out.

I see that as a good thing though because it will provide real and intense occasions for me to practice and measure my progress with regards to the skills involved in managing my feelings.

So to summarise
I believe that by implementing the above changes I will have re-adjusted the portfolio lite(and benchmark portfolio) idea back to what they were intended to be;  profitable, educational, low cost,flexible and easily manageable tools for exploiting the sports betting markets.

I know this has been a long post but I would just like to conclude by explaining that  I am also changing my weekly results reporting in that I will not just report the raw numbers for the past week as  I believe it is counter to all that this blog stands for with regards to patience and the long term view.

I will still write a weekly results reporting post but it will be based more on long term trends than just include the basic (and to my mind meaningless) weeks figures.

I feel that by implementing the changes above I will be getting back to my core values of PATIENT FOCUSED SPECULATION.

Finally If you have managed to read (endure) through all the this post you deserve a treat( that is of course if you like David Bowie):

I hope you have enjoyed this post

Stay Patient


  1. Some interesting points there but a couple of things worry me about your cherry picking approach..

    I think if you follow a tipster, you should back all the selections they put out as you run the risk of missing out on winners. It just adds another variable into the mix.

    I don't agree that the higher priced selections will always have the most value.

    Good luck all the same.

    Excellent blog.

  2. Mark,

    That may have been a big post but it didn't seem it when reading. Why? Because it was interesting. I can appreciate your thoughts on time management because there can be huge problems with being over stretched. I wonder if you could still follow all the tipsters result - showing them - but only bet using this new format. Not sure if you intend to do that or not. I guess it is difficult to do both. Sure Portfolio Lite will be a success in this new form.


  3. Hi Jason

    Thanks for the comment mate.

    I will record the results for my portfolio lite and benchmark portfolio and although I will not record the full results of each tipster I will regularly compare how my 'Lite' results compare to those published by the tipster as I think it will be interesting to see how they do compare.

    Thanks again

  4. Hi Anon

    Thanks for the comment.

    You have touched on one of the key fascinations with sports speculation, we all have different views about how to approach the markets.

    As I wrote, I know full well that I will miss out on winners but I am not to concerned about that as long as I make a profit over the long term.

    With regards to the longer shots not having the most value, you may be correct, but I believe that if I am offered two selections of equal points value by one of the tipsters and I am only choosing one to back, I will always choose the longer odds selection.


  5. Hi Mark

    Interesting thoughts ,yes you are certain too miss some winners, though impossible to say if this will effect your overall profits that much, only time will tell.

    Time management would be major problem following lots of services.In my opinion more than 6 or 7 services would be very difficult to manage on daily basis.

    Best of luck with portfolio lite,will be very interesting how things workout over the year.


  6. Hi Jerry

    Thanks for the comment.

    I know that I will miss out on winners but I will also miss out on losers as well, so as you say I do not know for sure how my decision will affect my overall profits.

    One thing is for sure and that is managing my time is now one of my highest priorities and if I have to give up a small amount of profit to stay in control then I see it as a small price to pay.

    Anyway thanks again for your comment



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