Friday's Racing Tips (23rd June)

Racing Tips From Patient Speculation
Please remember the majority of the horses detailed in these posts are noted because they feature within Group Horse and significantly entered. I will note a few horses which may not be entered on these pages if they hold significant statistical chances of winning.  

6:55 Newmarket - 

A couple of juveniles noted by their respective trainers. Charlie Appleby has been flying high this season much to the disapproval of Saeed bin Suroor. Tribal Quest is an American-bred colt and son of War Front out of a winning mare who went close at Group 1. He cost $575,000 at the yearling sales. Appleby's debutantes have been in sparkling form this season and it would take a brave person to say this March foal will not win. 

The horse in opposition is James Tate's Invincible Army. Tate is an excellent handler and it is significant this horse was fancied to go well on debut. This bay colt is a son of Invincible Spirit racing in the familiar silks of Saeed Manana. He was purchased at the breeze-up sales in April for 290,000G after being bought for just 95,000G as a yearling. Invincible Army ran a cracking race on debut when beaten by Masar, trained by Appleby. The form of that race is strong and he has valuable race fitness and experience. 

Summary: An exciting clash between two potentially smart horses. We know Tate's charge is pretty classy and will be contesting Group races. He will take some beating but at odds of even money with a respected opponent in Tribal Quest, I really wouldn't want to bet at restricted odds. Appleby has a line with many class horses and it may not be beyond the realms that Tribal Quest has been galloping upsides Masar, who spoiled the party for Invincible Army at Goodwood. I would be very surprised if one of these two doesn't win and most likely finish first and second.  If betting on Tribal Quest I would almost certainly have a straight win forecast with Invincible Army. I would wait for the betting to settle and hope one is backed to odds on and hope for an each-way bet on the other. That looks very unlikely but you can never tell with these markets. A forecast is a prudent option if you fancy Godolphin to shine. 

7:50 Bath - 

An intriguing contest which looks a two-horse war. For limited horses, war is probably the wrong choice of word. A restricted race type which usually goes to a form horse over a debutante. Autumn Lodge has been kept busy by Stan Moore. He is a handler who knows his stuff and it is a pity he lacks the ammunition of the days of old when he got a few fair horses from Mrs Fitri Hay. This bay gelding wasn't disgraced in the Brocklesby Stakes and run well enough in his five starts to date. I actually had a bet on him second start when hitting the frame at odds of 33/1. He should win this race. The major opposition comes from Dean Ivory's Hugs And Pats. I get a feeling this bay gelding was meant to run of late but withdraw as a non-runner.  

Summary: Autumn Lodge will most likely lead and have these in trouble in the first few furlongs. Bookmakers will not be giving much away. A lot of Moore's horses drift in the market so you may get a bit of value if waiting until closer to the race. Markets can be very difficult to assess so don't bank on it drifting. The main problem with any two-year-old who has raced a number of times is the fear that they may regress. It is sod's law that the day they have their best chance of tasting victory those hard races catch up with them. He ran well on Tuesday when beaten just over ten lengths in the Windsor Castle Listed race at Royal Ascot. That quick turnaround is a potential concern. If betting I would try to hold out and see if he drifts to about 7/4. That may be wishful thinking but you lose nothing by waiting to see. If betting, I would suggest you lay the bet in-running at about half the odds and hope it is taken in the first two or three furlongs when he could well steal an easy lead. In truth, you may be wiser to just keep your money in your pocket. If Autumn Lodge is ever going to win, this looks his ideal chance. Good luck. 

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.