Here's Where I'm Heading ?


I have decided to try a slightly different format for today’s post.  The post is in answer to an excellent comment by Seanos1  on one of my results post and will hopefully explain a little of where I am heading with my £1 A Day Patient Staking Approach .

The format is that Seanos1 comment is in blue and my answers are in black.

Seanos1 said...

    Mark

    I've tried a similar system but gave up due a lack of a decent return. The main issue being that it's very easy to get better place odds at the bookies than the exchanges but much more difficult to get better win odds on the exchanges after taking commission into account.
 
With those sort of bets I am happy if after laying the win part of the eachway bet, that  the place part of the bet still adds value, this may mean that I lose a little on the win part of the bet but as long as the place value is sufficient to leave me with a positive expectation of overall profit I will be satisfied.

The staking behind my approach is geared around trying to hit a long run of  winning bets/trades.  The staking is not purely positive progression based. Early on in every winning run ( I like to call a winning run a cycle) the stakes decrease before they begin to raise.
    
A couple of comments -

    Why not just lay the place at 1.65 for a guaranteed profit rather than waiting for the results?

The staking is also target based which means that I have specific odds targets for each step of  the target cycle, this may mean that I will on occasion lay the place part of the eachway bets as well if that allows me to reach my profit target for the current step.
     
If you double your stake you'll also be able to use Betfair for laying as well which will give you more chance of achieving the same/better win prices.

I know that my stakes are tiny at the moment but they will increase before long, based on the fact that I am adding £1 every day to my bank and also as my profits and profit targets increase.

    There is a way of effectively increasing your win prices by a point on selected races at Bet365. However it commits you to play in the next race that might not be suitable. This could increase your edge though.

I think I know of the way of increasing my returns from BET365 but one of the golden rules for my approach to limit the amount of time I spend implementing it.  

My ultimate goal with this approach is to limit the time implementing it to a minimum while still retaining the possibility of relatively huge payouts. So in other words my aim is to get to a stage where I do my daily research implement one bet trade and then I will be done except for recording and analysing by bets /trades.

    Best Odds Guaranteed will help your return a lot in the long term.
  
I normally do use Best Odds Guaranteed bookmakers where possible but Skybet were offering the best odds and paying ¼ odds the place.

    I wish you luck with this and look forward to some results that show profitability. I'm sure it will but my experience at twenty five times higher stakes really only showed I could nick a fiver or tenner here or there. I'm obviously not as patient as you because this seemed a lot of work for a small return.

My approach will not just use the one method of extracting value from the place part of eachway bets, however for the start of each of the betting cycles that I mentioned earlier I will use the method because my research has shown me that there are long runs of placed efforts.  The bookmakers do not like these sort of bets so I will only use them up to a certain size. As and when my cycle targets get bigger I will use other methods or combination of methods to achieve the targets and desired results.

I know that all this talk of cycles and targets makes the whole approach sound complicated but it is really very simple for me to implement.

I hope that you have enjoyed this post

Stay Patient.
Mark

4 comments:

  1. hi,

    I wondered if you want to swap links?

    I have already put you on mine.

    My link is:
    http://fulltimefootballtrading.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  2. Mark

    I'm interested to see how you're going to extract further value using other methods. I have one more question and one comment.

    Are you picking horses you think will place or are you relying on the price differentials to select the horses for you?

    I did find that non runners in the race can affect the returns significantly - I didn't really establish whether this was positive or negative due to my smallish sample size but I'd be interested to find out. Obviously betting nearer the off will counteract this but I guess you might miss out on the price differences.

    Cheers

    Sean

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Ryan

    I have added a link, Good luck.

    Mark

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Sean

    I mainly use the price differentials as I find that the Betfair price is the best indication of the selections chances, so if I am offered greater odds by the bookmakers then I believe I am achieving value.

    You have picked up on a good point. I am tending to leave it a lot nearer to the off now before making my selections because of the risk of non runners.

    With regards to extracting extra value, I think that the way I worded that could have been better. I did not mean extract more value from the actual eachway bets I meant using other profitable methods to compliment my eachway bets during the early stages.

    I hope that answers you questions.

    Thanks
    Mark

    ReplyDelete

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