He Examined The Market And We Cashed In!

You may need to click on the picture to see the details clearly

Anyone who has been following my Portfolio Lite will know that I am also in the process of building a small portfolio of subscription based services called my benchmark portfolio to measure my portfolio lite to in terms of results.

The first addition to the benchmark portfolio was The Market Examiner who I started following from the start of this month.

The results in the two weeks that I have been following the service using my twist on an eachway staking plan have been negative which I was not concerned about at all because I know that the average odds The Market Examiner backs at are quite high and loosing runs are to be expected. What I did not expect so soon though was the fantastic result today.

The selection that has got me so excited was a horse named Ganston that was running in the 15:10 race at Beverley.  The Market Examiner put Granston up as a selection with a recommended stake of DOUBLE the normal amount at odds of 16/1. The SP price was the same and the horse romped home putting the service well in profit for the month already. (See result embedded in the picture at the top of this post)

I know one result does not really prove anything but I have been following the service for a few years now and this is not an isolated occurrence.  The point I want my blogs readers to take from this post is that it is vital to have a long term view when following a tipster or trying a method that you have done your research on, because it is inevitable that we will have losing runs but as long as the wins when they arrive exceed the losses we have nothing to worry about.

I hope you have enjoyed this post

Stay patient
Mark

8 comments:

  1. Hi Mark,

    Never a truer word said. Great to see The Market Examiner find a great winner. Portfolio Lite is a great addition to Patient Speculation and I can see it going from strength to strength. It is a very exciting project.

    Regards,
    Jason

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  2. Jason

    The portfolio lite and now my benchmark portfolio have both got off to great starts. As you say it is a very exciting project.

    Thanks
    Mark

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  3. Mark,

    Great stuff with all the services and well done to The Market Examiner who is having a cracking 2011.

    I wanted to ask you something after going back through some data of my own. How did you decide to focus on the each way side of things with your selections and not simply win only? Is it just as a cushion against the longer losing runs? Or something else.

    Asking mainly as I had a couple of optimum bets today at 12/1 and 20/1 both second and I'm getting a bit frustrated. I know going more points on the win would produce a bigger profit then each way but I'd just feel more secure getting some kind of return.

    Cheers Rich (Lonesome Pundit)

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  4. Hi Rich

    Thanks for the comment.

    With regards to my decision to back eachway.

    With my own selections generally the majority of the value is in the place part of the bet so that is why I bet eachway.

    With regards to the majority of horse races it is generally accepted that betting win only is the bet that contains the most value, the problem is as you say it can be very difficult to deal with the long losing runs and so some people trade some of the win value for shorter losing runs by backing eachway.

    The calculator that I have designed and am using now basically allows me to back eachway and then lay a part of the place part of the bet back on betfair so as to result in the following.

    If the selection is unplaced I lose both parts of the eachway bet but win the place lay bet so as to limit my losses.

    If the selection places I will not win or lose anything.

    If the selection wins I will win the win part of the bet plus a portion of the place winnings equivalent to the win bet stake.(ie with a selection at 16/1 I will get the equivalent of 17/1 on the win part of the bet.

    The result is that I am limiting my losses on the eachway bet and cutting my losing runs down on the win bet because when I place I have not won or lost anything

    I hope that makes sense.
    If you send me your email address via a private message on twitter with the version of excel that you use I will send you a copy to play around with.

    I do intend to give the calculator away on the blog but I am bogged down at the moment trying to write legible instructions.

    Thanks
    Mark

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  5. Cheers for that Mark.

    Will send you a message.

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  6. i take the point about the long term view but dont totally agree with it.
    i guess its a fair point if you belive in your service but at the same time its the first qoute you get thrown back at you from services when things are going tits up
    did jp not take a long term view?
    how long is a long term view ?? till your dieing day??
    isent the current form of a service the most important not the past ??
    great blog and not having a go at anybody just throwing a few questions into the mix

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  7. Hi Anon
    Thanks for your comment and I appreciate you spelling out that you are not having a go.

    My answer to your point would be that we all have our own ideas about how we approach our betting.

    I believe that all services or methods will have periods where they suffer quite considerable drawdowns, it is just part of the game we play.

    The $64,000 dollar question is how do we deal with these times of poor performance. To me we can manage it with our staking, by that I mean we put the equivalent to a stop loss into place.

    I for example have a simple rule that if my bank for a particular service or method halves, then I will halve my stakes. I know it sounds simplistic but it is a clear safety net.

    Also making sure that no one service is dominating your results by making sure that your bank sizes for each service or method are set so as to limit your liabilities if any one bank has a poor period of performance can help.

    What I am trying to say is that it is up to all of us as individuals to look at our aversion to risk and set our staking accordingly.

    Thanks again
    Mark

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  8. hi mark
    thanks for your views and i guess your right its what suits each person but sometimes you dont know what suits you untill you hit the wall
    kodagira seems to be cracking up , big sbc poster ect , following the best recommended services but at present he seems a stones throw from packing it in .
    he might have done it all ready because i doubt he had a good day today.
    he says on his blog pb has made nothing in 6 months , pb letter to subscribers today was to reasure them that its nowhere near there worst run and things will change soon
    as you say you have to decide yourself when to pack it in

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