Lay The Field Fourteen Day Trial – Day Ones Result

You may need to double click on the picture for a better view

My blog post of the week this Monday described a method of laying the whole field in a horse race, so that you would profit if at least two horses reached the lay price you set.

I was so impressed with the concept that I decided to do a fourteen day trial where I would pick one race a day to put the method into action.

Today was the first day where I have put the method into action and as you can see from the screen shot above, I have got off to a profitable start.

I picked a 5 furlong handicap race at Wolverhampton where there were 12 runners in the race and a fairly warm favourite.

I decided to set my maximum liability at £2.00 and  my lay odds at 1.33 so that if I did win I would be paid out at odds of nearly two to one.

My reasoning was that Wolverhampton is in my opinion a compact course and with a fairly large field in a sprint, there could be quite a lot of volatility in the in play markets.

As you can see from the highlighted portions of the screen shot above, the race was won by Flying Applause and there was also over a thousand pounds traded at or below 1.33 on another horse in the field called Mata Hari Blue, ensuring a profit of £3.86.

For further reading regarding this method and my reasons for trying it, click on the following link:

I hope you enjoyed this post


Stay patient
Mark

7 comments:

  1. Well done, I was shown that on a betfair education evening once, I have a tried before, but when would you employ this method ie on all 5f races or just wolves or all weather, interested to hear your thoughts

    Many thanks

    Steve

    Newsportsexchangetrader.blogsport.com

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Steve

    Thanks for the feedback. Yours is a good question and one that I am asking myself as well.

    This trial is a learning experience for me as much as anyone else, but my initial thoughts were to try the method on sprints on the all weather courses with one exception being Southwell.

    I will not try it at Southwell because it seems to me that front runners don't get caught as often there, which is probably due to the different surface.

    Having said all the above I was watching the 4:10 at Folkstone which was a 3 mile handicap chase with only seven runners and another horse in that race traded at 1.17 in running!!

    There may be an option of watching the race unfold and and put the lays in if a few horses are looking like they may be bunching up before the end of the race.

    Also if I remember correctly, the hill at Cheltenham has cost me dear in the past when it looked like my selection had the race sewn up only run out of steam just before the finishing line :-(

    As I said This trial is a learning experience for me as well so hopefully we can all gain from it.

    I would be interested to know if there is a way of quickly getting the data on as many races as possible though!!

    Thanks again
    Mark

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  3. a few things from experience guys...

    - 5f races are probably the worst to try it on (punters don't get enough time to over-react, and that's what makes it profitable). The longer the better, 7f upwards on the flat, anything on the jumps.

    - I'm not a fan of it on all-weather, although that is anecdotal rather than backed up by stats

    - one race a day for two wks isn't going to prove anything. You need a sample size of hundreds, if not thousands of races to determine anything of note.

    - the magic number (you're using 1.33 here) will vary by track. Some places have shocking camera angles (i.e. where horses run at the camera like Worcester or the track is a long way from the lens like Ascot) whereas others are much truer, so only the natural fluctuations will hit the mark, rather than overreactions - another reason why I dislike AW tracks for lay the field.

    Cheers
    Scott

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  4. Hi Mark,

    Be interested to see how this goes, spent a fair while, hours/days lol sifting through the Betfair results pages to see if I could make a lay all strategy work. I was though looking at a much higher price than the 1.33 in your example. I guess with a lower price such as 1.33 your going to have two horses match it less but when they do the profit outweighs putting in a higher lay.

    I think my problem was trying to look at doing it every race which wasn't profitable albeit on paper. Got to select the actual races wisely.

    Not sure if you can download all the prices from the results pages but it sure would be useful.

    Be keen to see how it goes.

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  5. p.s. mate, what made me chuckle was that in the Blog Post of the Week - Flying Applause won the race and same here in your example. Spooky!!

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  6. Hi Mark,

    I had a look at this type of betting a little while back but I have my doubts it would be profitable over time. It is interesting to see how it goes.

    Regards,
    Jason

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  7. Hi Scott

    Thanks for taking the time to give your advice I really appreciate it, especially when you consider I was heading in the wrong direction by choosing the sprint races and possibly the all weather racing.

    With regards to 14 days being statistically irrelevant; you are of course correct but I just thought it would be an interesting experiment and may throw up a few ideas that we could profit from.

    Thanks for the pointers regarding camera angles and the quirks of courses, it is definite food for thought and has given me a direction for my research.

    Hi Skeenobeener

    Thanks for the feedback, you are right it would be very useful to be able to download a large sample size of results into excel to see what we could uncover.

    Also with regards to Flying Applause, I thought you were winding me up! but you are right it is very spooky!

    Hi Jason

    Thanks for the feedback.
    It may turn out to be a dead end but sometimes a fresh pair of eyes looking at a problem can see solutions that have been overlooked by others so it’s got to be worth a try.

    Thanks again
    Mark

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