Lay The Field Fourteen Day Trial – Day Eleven A Day Of Valuable Lessons

You may need to double click on the screen shot for a better view

My Blog post of the week last Monday described a method of laying the whole field in a horse race so that you would profit if at least two horses reached the lay price you set.

Before I start todays round up,  I would just like to thank Scott Ferguson of the Sport is made for betting  blog, for originally posting up this method and bringing it to our attention.
I was so impressed with the concept that I decided to do a fourteen day trial where I would pick one race a day to put the method into action.

Today was the eleventh day that I have had the time to put the method into action and as you can see from the screen shot above, it was a day of Valuable Lessons.

I decided to set my lay odds at 1.33 again, so that if I did win I would be paid out at odds of nearly two to one.

The race that I took on was the 15:00 at Sandown, comprisilng of the PaddyPower Imperial Cup which was a Handicap hurdle over a distance of  2 miles. With 24 runners in the race the market was wide open.

What happened next was a very valuable lesson and I am really pleased that these particular set of circumstances happened when I was doing my trial.

As normal I put my lay bets on earlier in the day with the option to keep in running.

At 14:55 I fired up the PC so I could monitor the race and take the appropriate screen shots, however when trying to log on to Betfair I was great by the service down message. Betfair has been down most of the day since then but I have managed to find out that my bets had lapsed so I did not incur a loss.(See screen clip below):
You may need to double click on the screen shot for a better view

On reflection the three lessons that I can take from today are:

1. As sports speculators we have to expect the unexpected,

2. It is never a good idea to try this type of in running bets on a Saturday at 15:00hrs, because this is probably the time of largest demand on the Betfair servers.

3. Testing live with very small stakes is always preferable to paper trading, as paper trading does not take into account these sorts of occurrences. For a great article on Cassini’s Green all Over blog about the pros and cons of paper trading click here:Paper Trading

Trial Summary

Number of bets: 11
Number of bets matched: 10
Winning bets: 4
Strike rate: 40%
Profit/Loss: +£3.44

I hope you enjoyed this post
Stay patient
Mark

2 comments:

  1. Hi , nice to see the blog developing a ` style`. On the issue of checking ideas such as ` lay the field `, simply go to the Betfair website and check past results. You`ll find the lowest ` in running `prices a horse matched very quickly and can check say 100 races in an hour or so - no need to check in real time . There is a misguided idea that 5 furlong races offer more chance of 2 or more matches at under `evens` for example , however this is not correct . This fact can be checked by anyone themselves. Good luck , JT

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  2. Hi Jason

    Thanks for the info mate. with regards to the real time testing; I know there is no statistical benefit to come out of a small trial, but I believe that it does help to show what unexpected issues you may come up against, as per what happened today.

    Looking back over the figures is as you say the quickest and best way of looking at methods like this, but I think that it is always worth doing a small live trial just to see what it uncovers!

    Thanks again for the feedback
    Mark

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